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【广证恒生咨询】东信和平:坐拥城联,A股最具用户规模的移动支付平台运营商

廣證恆生諮詢 ·  Sep 15, 2014 00:00  · Researches

Views different from the market: 1. The City Card is the most important application field for mobile payments, and has two major advantages: the largest number of users and the highest user stickiness. 2. Dongxin Peace is owned by Citylink (the sole operator of the National City Card platform) and is the best investment target for A-share mobile payments. Dongxin Heping: Owned by City Union, A-share mobile payment is the best investment target. According to statistics, the usage rate of mobile online payments in China has risen from 25.1% at the end of 2013 to 38.9% in the first half of 2014; in Q2 of 2014, the number and total of mobile payment transactions in China reached 947 million and 4.92 trillion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates as high as 255% and 237% respectively; mobile payment demand showed an accelerated growth trend. Furthermore, China's mobile payment standards have been determined, and as of 2014, the number of networked POS machines reached 13.58 million, so promotion conditions are gradually being met. Citylink Data Co., Ltd. is the sole operator of the City-One Card national platform, and the company will become the best investment target for A-share mobile payments. Citylink Company: The sole operator and promoter of the City Card national platform. As the operator of the City-One Card national platform, City Union Corporation undertakes two major functions: 1. “One card usage”, which provides interconnection and settlement functions for various local card companies; 2. “One card for multiple uses” to promote the application of the card in various fields of smart city life, such as small consumption and smart homes. At this stage, Citylink has two clear and clear profit models: 1. Small consumption fee model (see China UnionPay for POS fees); 2. User traffic import model (see Internet traffic charging model). In the future, more new business forms and profit models will be developed based on the platform and a huge user base. It is expected that by 2018, Citylink will become a smart city lifestyle platform operator with over 300 million users, over 1 billion dollars in revenue, and over 300 million in profits. City Card: The main application field of mobile payments, the bearer and promoter of smart city life. The Ministry of Housing and Construction's City Card Standard was initially authorized by the State Council, and is now the factual standard for Tier 1 and 2 cities. The City Card is already the main field of mobile payments and an important promoter of mobile payments; it has two core advantages: 1. The number of users is large. Currently, the stock of China's card exceeds 400 million cards, and it will continue to grow in the future; 2. It is highly sticky to use, and the card is essential for urban life. The next card will cover all aspects of people's clothing, food, lodging, and travel, and become the bearer and promoter of smart city life. Profit forecasting and valuation. Net profit attributable to the parent company in 2014-2016 is estimated to be 9599, 16825, and 221.5 million yuan, EPS is 0.33, 0.58, and 0.77 yuan, and corresponding PE is 51, 29, and 22. The central enterprise incentivizes and improvements to promote the company's high performance growth. It has the city link as the best target for mobile payment platform operation, and maintains the company's “highly recommended” rating, with a target price of 21.8 yuan. Risk warning: Inventory removal is blocked; demand for financial IC cards and mobile payments is not as good as expected.

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