share_log

【东方证券】凯恩股份:所得税率影响业绩发挥

東方證券 ·  Feb 28, 2012 00:00  · Researches

Incident The company released a performance report. In 2011, the company's revenue was 965 million yuan, an increase of 17.7%, operating profit of 152 million yuan, an increase of 25.9%, and net profit reached 123 million yuan, an increase of 16%, completely diluting EPS of 0.52 yuan. The performance report of the review company was slightly lower than our previous performance expectations. The increase in income tax rates may be the main reason. According to the company's performance report, the overall diluted performance in 2011 was 0.52 yuan, which is slightly lower than the profit forecast of 0.55 yuan in our previous annual report. We think the main reason is that the corporate income tax rate increased to 22%, while the company's income tax rate in 2010 was 16%. From the performance report, the company's total profit increased by 25.8%, while net profit increased by less than 16%. We estimate that if tax is paid at the same tax rate as in 2010, the company's overall diluted performance is around 0.57 yuan. The electronics industry is picking up, and we expect the company's business growth to be relatively stable in the first half of the year. The International Semiconductor Equipment Materials Association (SEMI) announced on the 23rd that the initial estimate of the book-to-bill ratio (book-to-bill ratio) for January 2012 was 0.95, showing an increase for the fourth month in a row, the second highest since 2011/5 (0.97). We expect the recovery in downstream orders to drive demand for electrolytic paper in a lagging process, so we expect that the company's orders for electrolytic paper products will gradually resume in the first half of the year, and the growth in performance is also relatively stable. The company's growth is expected to be high from low to high, maintaining the company's buying rating. Affected by the real estate purchase restriction policy, shipments of non-woven wallpaper, the company's other main product, have slowed down, and sales of electrolytic paper products have also lagged behind the recovery in demand for downstream electronic products. In addition, the production equipment that the company completed technical improvements last year required human-machine running-in from installation and commissioning to normal operation. Therefore, in the first half of the year, we expect the company to operate more steadily and grow at a slower rate. In the second half of the year, with orders returning month by month and the company's product grade, the company will return to a rapid growth path. Due to the decline in the downstream electronics industry compared to 2012, we were slightly downgraded to EPS 0.83 yuan (original forecast 0.92 yuan), the performance after additional dilution was 0.69 yuan, and the target price was 20.8 yuan, maintaining the company's buying rating. Risk factors: Downstream consumer electronics shipments have declined, leading to a decline in demand for electrolytic paper.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment