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【东方证券】凯恩股份:业绩略超预期,2012年增长点明确

東方證券 ·  Oct 25, 2011 00:00  · Researches

The study concluded that performance slightly exceeded expectations, revenue profit increased sharply, and gross margin continued to improve. The company achieved performance of 0.51 yuan in the 1st to 3rd quarter, slightly higher than the profit forecast of 0.50 yuan in our quarterly report forecast. Furthermore, the company's revenue maintained a relatively rapid increase of 25%, and the gross margin level reached 35.45%, which continued to rise from the level of 34.95% in the same period last year. We believe that the increase in the company's gross margin was mainly due to the increase in production of its high-margin products, such as high-grade electrolytic paper and non-woven wallpaper. Construction in progress remains high, cost rates are rising slightly, and cash flow is steady. The company's projects under construction reached 68 million in the third quarter, a certain increase from the interim report of 59 million, mainly for the company's electrolytic paper and other special paper products technical improvement projects. The project is expected to solidify in the fourth quarter or the first quarter of next year, which will become the company's growth point in 2012; furthermore, the company's management expenses for the third quarter rose 1% year on year, mainly due to the increase in the company's R&D investment and employee benefits. We expect that as the company's income level further increases, the overall cost level will gradually decline; finally, the company's operating cash flow in the first three quarters was very healthy, achieving a cash flow of 0.53 yuan per share, which is better than the EPS level. In the current context of monetary tightening, the company's steady cash flow also reflects the company's good operating and bargaining power. The company expects growth of 10-40% throughout the year, corresponding to EPS of 0.60 to 0.76 yuan. The company's three-quarter report predicts full-year performance, and expects full-year growth to be between 10-40%. We believe that the company may face consolidation of ongoing projects in the fourth quarter and order instability due to the European debt crisis may have a partial impact on the company's revenue and gross profit level, but we firmly believe that as long as the international economy does not return to the same path as in 2008, according to our views in “A Wonder in the Capacitor Industry” earlier, the company's order situation will not decline drastically, and there is strong support for performance growth. Kane currently still has a margin of safety, and additional distribution is still progressing steadily, maintaining the company's buying rating. We have sorted out the financial indicators and valuation levels of enterprises in the international and domestic capacitor industry chains. Currently, Kane shares still have a considerable valuation advantage (see Table 1). We believe that after the earlier decline, the company's current price is quite marginal. Furthermore, the increase plans of companies that the market is concerned about are still progressing steadily, and the expansion projects are expected to drive the company's growth in 2012 and 2013. We expect the EPS in 2011/2012 to be 0.69 yuan, 0.92 yuan, maintaining the company's purchase rating, with a target price of 20.8 yuan. Risk factors: Consumer electronics shipments declined due to the economic crisis in Europe and the US, leading to a decline in demand for electrolytic paper.

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