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【中投证券】华星化工:草甘膦价格持续上扬,企业或将受益中部崛起

中投證券 ·  Jan 18, 2010 00:00  · Researches

Currently, the price of glyphosate is still rising and is expected to break through 30,000 yuan/ton; currently it is 25,500 yuan/ton. Supply will tighten during peak sales season at the end of the first quarter, and product prices are expected to rise sharply. An industrial policy for the pesticide industry is about to be introduced, which will benefit large glyphosate producers. The glyphosate sector is the largest variety in the pesticide industry. In the first two years, many small and medium-sized enterprises rushed to the market, leading to serious overcapacity, while many small and medium-sized enterprises have almost no environmental protection measures, so the introduction of industrial adjustment policies is expected to eliminate some unenvironmentally friendly production capacity. The relocation of the company will receive a lot of land revenue, and has now achieved 66.15 million yuan in equity transfer proceeds. Since the company's old factory area is only a short distance away from the tourist attraction Bawangsa Temple, the government requested the company to relocate and granted the company a very large preferential policy. The company's old factory area had nearly 600 acres of land, which was developed by the company after being converted to commercial land; the local government also provided 1,500 acres of land for the company's new projects and the relocation of the old factory area in Anhui Province; and the company also purchased 150 acres of land at low prices in Hexian New Area to build high-end residences. At the end of 2009, the company once again obtained 123 acres of land, enhancing the sustainability of real estate business profits. The company will greatly benefit from the fine chemical base in Anhui Province taking over chemical enterprises in the Yangtze River Delta. The company is the largest chemical enterprise in the fine chemical base, and undertakes sewage treatment and some management functions at the base. It also lays out basic chemical raw material projects such as chlor-alkali at the base, and uses its land advantages to cooperate with other enterprises at low cost to achieve scale expansion and product digestion within the park. Continued entry of external companies into the fine chemical base will contribute greatly to the company's profits. The Anhui Wanjiang Urban Belt, which is planned for the rise of central China, may be upgraded to a national strategy. Huaxing Chemical is located at the bridgehead of the demonstration zone, near Nanjing, next to the Yangtze River. It has an excellent regional location. Whether it is commercial real estate or industrial real estate, it will surely benefit first. The company's expansion into downstream glyphosate formulations is gradually increasing, and cooperation with the US pharmaceutical distributor UCPA is expected to achieve new breakthroughs. It is also reported that the first phase of the company's 100,000 ton caustic soda project is expected to be put into operation ahead of schedule. Maintain a highly recommended rating. Assuming that the average price of glyphosate remains at 25,000 yuan/ton for 10 years, and assuming that the company's real estate business contributed 25.5 million yuan in profit, we expect the company's EPS from 2009 to 11 to be 0.33 yuan, 0.74 yuan, and 1.00 yuan, respectively. The company's profit margin is very flexible. The company may benefit from the national strategy, and land development will also have more benefits in the later stages. Therefore, it will continue to grow rapidly in the next two years. Therefore, it will be given 25 times PE in 10 years, the target price for the next 6 to 12 months is 18.5 yuan, and the exercise price for the company's equity incentives is 18.41 yuan. Since the price of glyphosate is still rising, and there is currently room for a 30% increase according to our target price, we maintain our strong recommendation.

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