The decentralized growth rate of Gansu mid-range liquor market is accelerating.

Gansu mid-range liquor has a market share of more than 2 billion yuan, mostly carved up by Luzhou laojiao series and 5-6 local brands. Strong brands change quickly, there is no absolute advantage brand, there is still a large space for integration in the market. And with the promotion of the revitalization plan in Xinjiang, liquor consumption in Gansu is still accelerating.

Huangtai liquor has a certain accumulation of cellar and base liquor.

Huangtai Distillery was established in 1985 and now has a solid-state fermentation facility with an annual output of 10, 000 tons of base liquor and a base liquor inventory of more than 2000 tons. The pits are basically 10-20 years old, and most of the base wines have a history of nearly 10 years. In addition, the company has 10, 000 mu of vineyards and 3000 tons of wine production capacity.

Reshaping the sales system helps Huangtai regain its splendor

After the new major shareholder entered the company, he hired a consulting company to make a comprehensive reform of the sales system. First, the introduction of new packaging and higher positioning products; second, a comprehensive replacement of sales staff, reissue of wages, a substantial increase in enthusiasm. Third, set up a joint venture sales company with distributors to stabilize the cooperative relationship. We estimate that within 3 years, the company will be able to achieve sales revenue of 3.3 billion to 500 million.

Debt relief and turnaround are expected to be uncapped next year.

60 million of the debts and interest on the company's books have been decided by the court of first instance to be paid off through the bankruptcy of the subsidiary. Due to the dissent from creditors, the company strives to achieve the goal of interest-free and capital reduction within this year, and to ensure full-year profitability through the proceeds of debt restructuring. Coupled with striving for a turnaround next year, we expect the company to take off its cap next year.

Risk hint

Economic growth is declining, the government controls consumption, and the company is facing strong competition to expand in Lanzhou.

Give a "cautious recommendation" rating for the first time

We estimate that the company's EPS for 10-12 years will be 0.1,0.21 and 0.20 yuan respectively, and the corresponding price-to-earnings ratio for 12 years has reached 43 times. The short-term price-to-earnings ratio is already on the high side, but local mid-range spirits may still have better development opportunities in the next few years, and the company's performance is likely to exceed expectations, so we temporarily give it a "cautious recommendation" rating.