I. Overview of events
The company reported revenue of 530 million yuan in 2012, an increase of 1.3% over the same period last year; net profit of-12.31 million yuan, down 159.9% from the same period last year; and earnings per share of-0.09 yuan.
II. Analysis and judgment
The sharp fluctuation of oil prices and the downturn in downstream demand are the main reasons for the decrease in profits compared with the same period last year. On the one hand, the main reasons are the sharp fluctuations in international oil prices in the first half of the year, and on the other hand, due to the deterioration of the domestic economic situation, the demand in the downstream petrochemical industry is depressed, and the prices of most chemical products have dropped significantly.
The loss was serious in the second quarter and began to improve in the third quarter. International oil prices were high in the first quarter and fell sharply in the second quarter. Since the second quarter, domestic demand and exports have deteriorated, downstream demand for the company's main chemical products has been depressed, and prices have also fallen, squeezing the company's profit margins. It lost 21.09 million per quarter in the second quarter, compared with a profit of 10.41 million in the same period last year. Since the third quarter, the economic situation at home and abroad has stabilized, and the international oil price is also in a relatively stable range. It is expected that the company will make a small profit from the third quarter and partially make up for the substantial loss in the second quarter.
Increased share of domestic income
In the first half of the year, domestic income was 498 million yuan, an increase of 8.88% over the same period last year, mainly due to the increase in product sales. Due to the obvious decline in product prices, the gross profit margin showed an overall downward trend; export revenue in the first half of the year was 26.1 million, down 17.54% from the same period last year. It is mainly because the unit price of the product has declined obviously. Overall, the proportion of domestic income in total income increased in the first half of the year, reaching more than 95%.
Third, profit forecast and investment suggestions
It is estimated that the fully diluted EPS from 2012 to 2014 is 0.03,0.16 and 0.27 yuan respectively. Corresponding to the current closing price PE is 407,70,41 times, the current valuation is relatively high. This year is a poor year for the company, we expect that downstream demand will gradually recover from the second half of the year, the company valuation is expected to be repaired, we temporarily give the company a "neutral" rating.
Fourth, risk tips:
The continuous low demand in the downstream industry has led to the low price of chemical products for a long time.