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【方正证券】佛塑科技:经营环境持续恶化,中期业绩大幅下滑

方正證券 ·  Aug 31, 2012 00:00  · Researches

The business environment continued to deteriorate, and net profit fell sharply year on year. During the reporting period, the company achieved revenue of 1,871 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.89%. Among them, dialysis materials, electrical materials, optical materials, barrier materials, and PET slice materials businesses were affected by poor downstream demand and related product price declines. Operating income fell by 45.74%, 6.89%, 12.48%, 5.46%, and 25.63%, respectively. PVC rolled materials alone achieved a slight increase in revenue of 3.11%, but due to their small share, they did not contribute much to the company's performance. At the same time, the costs of raw materials, transportation, electricity, capital, and manpower continued to rise, leading to a continuous deterioration in the company's operating environment. The company's gross margin decreased by 5.07 percentage points year on year, and net profit fell by 82.98 percentage points year on year. Traditional businesses join forces with new projects to open up space for future imagination. The company is the largest bidirectional stretch polyvinyl chloride (BOPP) film manufacturer in China. It has more than ten internationally advanced production lines and the only bidirectional stretch nylon (BOPA) film production line in the country. The wide-width plastic composite woven cloth produced by the subsidiary Jingwei branch accounts for 30% of the total production of the domestic plastics industry, BOPA film accounts for about 50% of the domestic market share, and BOPET film accounts for 24% of the country's total sales volume. In June 2012, the company and the Shanghai Institute of Ceramics jointly set up a project company to build a polymer intelligent energy-saving film production line with an annual output of 8-10 million square meters, with a total project investment of 84 million yuan. Polymer intelligent energy-saving film is a new generation of intelligent energy-saving film products. It has the characteristics of intelligent temperature regulation, can achieve two-way adjustment of heat and cold, effectively saves energy, and replaces existing insulation film products, and has broad market prospects. The construction period of the project is 12 months. After completion, the market development period is expected to be three years. The post-delivery production capacity is expected to reach 8 million square meters, add 8 million square meters of polymer intelligent energy-saving film, and increase sales volume of 400 million yuan. Profit forecasts and investment ratings. The company is a leading domestic plastics manufacturer with a wide variety of products and a high market share, and its share in the domestic market will continue to expand with the continuous release of production capacity in the future. Considering that the company's main products in the first half of the year were seriously affected by weak downstream demand and falling prices for related products, it is unlikely that fundamental changes will occur in the short term. We forecast that the company's 2012-2014 EPS will be 0.08 yuan, 0.22 yuan, and 0.42 yuan, respectively. The P/E values corresponding to the current stock price are 47.26 times, 17.88 times, and 9.52 times, respectively. Give the investment a “neutral” rating.

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