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【平安证券】佛塑科技动态点评:利润增幅低于预期,未来还看新能源

平安證券 ·  Oct 12, 2011 00:00  · Researches

The company disclosed the third quarter results report: From January to September 2011, the company achieved operating income of 2.88 billion yuan, an increase of 6.8% over the previous year; realized net profit attributable to the parent company of 140 million yuan, an increase of 21.4% over the previous year; and earnings per share of 0.22 yuan. Net assets of $2.38 per share. The increase in profit from the main investment points was lower than expected. According to the company's performance report, we estimate that its quarterly net profit for the third quarter of 2011 was 19.06 million yuan, or 0.03 yuan per share, a year-on-year decrease of 67.1%, and the increase in performance fell short of expectations. Combining the characteristics of the industry in which the company's main business is located and the company's specific operating conditions, we estimate that the reasons that may have led to this decline are as follows: The tight electricity supply in the Foshan region in the third quarter may cause the company's production capacity operating rate to be insufficient. Demand for electricity in Guangdong Province gradually increased in 2011, but due to factors such as the decline in hydropower supply due to dry weather and high fuel prices, etc., the province's power supply capacity is insufficient, and electricity supply continues to be tight. Since June, Foshan has implemented electricity consumption and emergency peak avoidance management. Most of the subsidiaries belonging to Foshan Plastic Technology are located in Foshan. It is estimated that the power restriction measures may cause the company's production capacity operating rate to be insufficient, objectively affecting the company's production capacity. Increased competition in the BOPET market may affect DuPont Hung Kai's performance. In 2010, production and sales in the BOPET market were booming, and domestic manufacturers expanded production drastically. New production capacity may be concentrated from the third quarter to the fourth quarter of 2011, increasing market competition. We estimate that in the third quarter, the company's BOPET products were greatly impacted by the market, and performance may have declined significantly. The 3D polarizer business was affected by shrinking downstream demand, and performance declined. The company's 3D polarizer business was affected by the decline in global 3D projection market prosperity and increased market competition in 2011. Product sales declined, and the annual performance is expected to decline by about 50%. Profit forecast. The company focuses on R&D and production of new energy, new materials, energy saving and environmental protection industries. The company's performance is expected to continue to grow in the future, driven by the release of new production capacity for lithium-ion battery separators. Due to the cyclical impact of the BOPET industry, we lowered our performance forecast. We expect the company's 2011, 2012, and 2013 EPS to be 0.30, 0.37, and 0.49 yuan respectively (regardless of real estate business contribution), corresponding to the latest closing price. PE is 32.8 times, 26.5 times, and 20.3 times, respectively, maintaining the company's “recommended” investment rating. Risk warning: The company's BOPET products are affected by the cyclical nature of the industry, and profits fluctuate greatly.

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