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【东北证券】佛塑科技:三季度盈利能力下滑幅度较大,业绩低于预期

東北證券 ·  Oct 27, 2011 00:00  · Researches

Investment highlights: In the first three quarters of 2011, the company achieved total revenue of 2,882 billion yuan, an increase of 6.77% over the previous year; realized net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 137 million yuan, an increase of 21.43% over the previous year; and achieved earnings per share of 0.22 yuan. The company's performance fell short of our previous expectations. In the third quarter of 2011, the company achieved a total revenue of 275 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.75%; realized net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 19.0624 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 67.10%; single-quarter gross margin was 12.17%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.78 percentage points, a year-on-year decrease of 2.93 percentage points; and the net profit margin was only 1.96%, a decrease of 6.80 percentage points over the previous year, a decrease of 5.99 percentage points over the previous year. The company's performance in the third quarter declined quite a bit. As of the end of the reporting period, the company's accounts receivable balance was 312 million yuan, very little change from the beginning of the period; the inventory balance was 1,669 million yuan, an increase of 47.89% over the beginning of the period; according to the company's explanation, the sharp increase in inventory balance was mainly due to the company's increase in raw material reserves based on market conditions. Since the company's inventory balance has been rising quarterly since the beginning of the year and is at a high level in the company's history, future price trends of related chemical products may have a great impact on the company's performance and need to be focused on. Due to the impact of international and domestic macroeconomic conditions, the prosperity of the chemical industry has declined markedly. The sharp year-on-year decline in the company's third-quarter results should have been mainly affected by the decline in industry sentiment. Furthermore, the prosperity of the electronics industry is also in the bottom-finding stage, and sales estimates of the company's polarizer products have also been affected. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, there is still some uncertainty about the industry situation, so we should not be overly optimistic. We lowered the company's earnings per share in 2011, 2012 and 2013 to 0.29, 0.45, and 0.62 yuan, respectively. The price-earnings ratios corresponding to the closing price of 9.58 yuan on October 26, 2011 were 33.14, 21.09, and 15.57 times, respectively. Although the company's performance fell short of expectations, and the lithium battery sector had no significant performance recently due to lack of stimulating factors, we are still optimistic about the company's long-term development potential and maintain the company's long-term recommendation rating for the time being. Risk: In the fourth quarter, there is still some uncertainty about the situation in the chemical industry, and the company's performance may still be hampered by the industry and fall short of expectations.

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