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【金元证券】现代投资调研报告:稳健有余成长不足

金元證券 ·  Mar 16, 2010 00:00  · Researches

The increase in traffic in 2009 led to a year-on-year increase in revenue and net profit of 16.57% and 26.11%. In 2009, under the dual influence of economic recovery and strengthened management within the company, traffic volume rebounded steadily, achieving operating income of 1,765 billion yuan, an increase of 16.57% over the same period of the previous year; total profit of 944 million yuan, an increase of 26.11% over the same period of the previous year; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies after deducting non-recurring profit and loss was 727 million yuan, an increase of 22.92% over the same period last year. The Tanlei Expressway is the company's main source of profit and is facing overhaul. The Tanlei Expressway is 168.84 kilometers long and is located on the main line of the Beijing-Zhuhai Expressway. Traffic growth is guaranteed. It is the company's main source of revenue. From 2007 to 2009, it accounted for more than 70% of the main revenue, accounting for more than 73% of the main operating profit. However, this section of the road has reached the end of overhaul since 2005. The company mainly focuses on road maintenance when traffic is ensured. The overhaul period has been delayed over and over again. It is estimated that the road surface of Highway 168 will cost about 1.5 billion yuan for overhaul. We expect construction to begin this year and next two years. At that time, phased overhauls will be carried out and closed in one direction. The Changyong Expressway and Changtan Expressway are facing diversion. In 2009, revenue from the Changyong and Changtan Expressway accounted for 3.14% and 23.75% of the main revenue, respectively. Driven by traffic, revenue increased by 10.55% and 18.15%, respectively. Changyong faces the current situation of high-speed diversion at the airport, and in the future, with the gradual implementation of the Changzhu Tan three-city integration plan, the Changtan Expressway will increasingly become an urban road for the city on the one hand, and will be impacted by the diversion of the Changzhu Tan Intercity Railway on the other. This is also a common problem faced by expressway companies, but we believe that with the development of the regional economy, there is still a guarantee that the two roads will maintain an 8-10% increase in traffic volume over the next 3 years. Preparations for depreciation of the Yueyang special line on National Highway 107 have already been calculated, and there is still uncertainty about when it will be retracted. The compensation schedule for National Highway 107 is still unclear. National Highway 107 runs through Hunan Province. The Yueyang section of modern investment management is only one of them. After National Highway 107 stopped charging fees, all operators were involved in compensation issues. The compensation entity was the provincial transportation department, but in these two years, the Transportation Department had heavy investment and construction tasks, and the compensation schedule was not clear. The company has already calculated 68.32 million yuan. The “cross-industry development” strategy is gradually being implemented, and investment in the financial industry and environmental protection industry is quite impressive. Despite the poor results of some previous cross-industry operations, we have noticed that the company's investment in the financial industry and environmental protection industry in the past two years has been quite impressive, and it is worth paying attention to. The business situation of Dayou Futures has continued to improve in the past two years. Currently, it is in the top three in the business index ranking of futures companies in Hunan Province. Net profit increased 295% to 4.15 million yuan in 2009 as trading volume increased. It is expected that with the launch of stock index futures and the company's establishment of a new sales department in Zhuzhou in 2010, the increase in trading volume is expected to drive net profit to reach 10 million, becoming a new profit growth point for the company. Hyundai Weibote Technology Investment Company is expected to become the company's high-tech industry investment platform. Investment advice: According to the company's 2009 and 2010 profit forecasts, the company's dynamic price-earnings ratio is 13.5 times, which is 18 times lower than the industry average price-earnings ratio. The stock price is undervalued. We gave it a cautious rating to increase our holdings, and the target price was 32 yuan.

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