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【天相投资】赣能股份:依靠引入战略投资者改善经营和发展环境

天相投資 ·  Apr 29, 2011 00:00  · Researches

In 2010, the company achieved operating income of 2,057 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.1%; operating profit - 39.75 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 142.0%; net profit attributable to owners of the parent company - 39.56 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 149.1%; diluted earnings per share - 0.06 yuan; and no increase in 2010 without distribution. The hourly decline in thermal power utilization dampens revenue growth. In 2010, the electricity consumption of the entire society in Jiangxi Province increased by 14.9% year on year, maintaining the same level as the whole country; however, due to the large number of new power generation capacity put into production in 2009-2010 in the province, and the increase in hydropower output in 2010, which accounts for 25% of the province's power supply structure, the utilization hours of thermal power equipment increased by 40.5% year on year, so the utilization time of thermal power equipment declined year on year. During the reporting period, the company's installed structure remained stable (1.4 million kilowatts of thermal power and 100,000 kilowatts of hydropower), and feed-in electricity volume decreased by 5.8% year on year, dragging down revenue growth. Demand for electricity consumption in Jiangxi Province has been growing rapidly since this year, and the number of hours used by thermal power equipment in the province has now rebounded. It is expected that the company's feed-in electricity volume will increase year on year this year, but we need to be wary of insufficient coal supply. The rise in coal prices has exacerbated the decline in earnings. According to our estimates, in 2010, the company's thermal power generation volume fell 7.4% year on year, while coal procurement costs decreased by only 3.6% year on year. In addition to the increase in non-fuel costs in the main power generation business, the company's comprehensive gross margin fell 6.0 percentage points year on year, which is the main reason for the sharp decline in operating profit during the reporting period. In 2011, bottlenecks in coal-fired procurement for thermal power in the province still existed, and cost control pressure did not abate. If electricity price adjustments were difficult to be implemented, profitability would inevitably continue to decline. Investment income from investing in expressways relieves loss pressure on the main business. Changtai Expressway Company, with 23.33% of the company's shares, achieved net profit of 384 million yuan in 2010, a decrease of 10.7% over the previous year. During the reporting period, it contributed 89.56 million yuan in investment income to the company, reducing the loss pressure on the main business. Relying on introducing strategic investors to improve the operating and development environment. The approval process for the Peng Ze and Wanan Yanjiashan nuclear power project in which the company participated was suspended due to the earthquake in Japan, reducing the pressure on the company's capital expenditure in the short term, but the Fengdian Phase III thermal power project (2*1 million kilowatts), which holds 55% of the shares, is awaiting approval from the National Development and Reform Commission. It is expected that construction will be approved this year. It is estimated that the company's capital investment will be 880 million yuan, and the company's cash balance at the end of 2010 is 345 million yuan, which is difficult to support. The company plans to fully launch refinancing work in the direction of targeted additional issuance in 2011, introduce strategic investors, resolve capital bottlenecks for sustainable development, and improve the company's governance environment at the same time. Performance growth has been weak in the past two years, so focus is on investment opportunities on the theme of refinancing. The company's main business operations in the past two years have still been hampered by bottlenecks in capacity expansion and pressure on coal costs. If feed-in tariffs cannot be raised reasonably, it will be difficult to escape losses. It is difficult for the Fengdian Phase III project to contribute to performance until 2013. We maintain the company's “neutral” investment rating, so we can pay due attention to refinancing theme investment opportunities.

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