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【光大证券】一汽夏利:基本面平稳,静待整体上市

光大證券 ·  Jan 17, 2011 00:00  · Researches

There is little possibility that the headquarters will turn a loss in 2011, and profit mainly depends on FAW Toyota's loss of 700 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2010, of which 265 million yuan was lost in the third quarter. The main reasons for the increase in losses at the headquarters were: sales in the third quarter were poor, with sales of 47,000 vehicles in a single quarter, a decrease of 16% from quarter to quarter; on the other hand, the company failed to receive subsidies for energy-saving vehicles in the early stages, which advanced related expenses to boost sales. The company sold 78,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter, an increase of 67% over the previous quarter. Losses are expected to be reduced by a large percentage in the fourth quarter. The company will have 2 model models this year, and it is expected that a new A-class car will be launched by the end of 2011. After the Huali plant is put into operation, the Xiali N5 will be produced. The A-class cars, CUV, and A0 class cars that the company will launch in the future are currently being invested in research and development by FAW Group, and the Group will also support the company in terms of advertising expenses, etc. Since the company did not have a brand new model in 2011, we expect the company headquarters to continue to lose money. FAW-Toyota has always been the source of the company's profit. In the first three quarters of 2010, Toyota contributed 960 million yuan in investment income, 3.3 times the company's net profit. In 2010, FAW Toyota sold 506,000 vehicles, and plans to sell 550,000 vehicles in 2011. The expansion of production capacity has basically come to an end, and future capital expenditure has been reduced. The company currently has approved production capacity of about 180,000 vehicles, and worked overtime to produce 250,000 vehicles in 2010; in 2011/3, the Huali plant was put into operation, adding 150,000 vehicles; the company's 400,000 engine production capacity project was put into operation in 2010. Currently, the expansion of the company's vehicle and engine production capacity has come to an end. The company's current transmission production capacity is insufficient. Some of them are always produced by outsourced units, and the company assembles them. The company's possible capital expenditure for some time to come is due to the expansion of transmission production capacity, but the overall investment is far less than that of vehicles and engines. The autonomous engine replaced the Toyota engine to improve the company's profitability, and the company's Vizhi and some of its old Xiali products purchased engines from FAW Toyota Engine Company. Approximately 50,000 to 60,000 units were purchased in 2010, and will gradually be replaced by the autonomous engine TA1 in 2011. According to the company's related transaction announcement data, the purchase price of FAW-Toyota's engines is over 12,000 yuan for a single engine, while according to experience, the cost of the company's own-brand engine is around 8,000 yuan, which means that replacing the latter engine reduces the cost by 4,000 yuan, and the total replacement reduces the cost by 2-24 billion yuan. The overall listing may take some time for us to judge. Once FAW Group goes public as a whole, the company's absorption and merger is a probable event; since FAW shares failed to obtain government approval at the end of 2010, it will take at least 1 year to consider the overall listing during the counseling period.

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