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【光大证券】金陵药业:“金陵+鼓楼”模式稳固,医疗服务持续发展

光大證券 ·  Nov 4, 2014 00:00  · Researches

Incident: Today, we conducted research on Jinling Pharmaceutical and had in-depth exchanges with company executives on the company's strategy and business conditions. The company strategically lays out medical services and plans to form a hospital management company with Gulou. In the future, the company will strategically lay out the medical service field and promote the company's high growth through the development of medical services. The company's target hospitals are hospitals that demand a lot of private capital. In order to promote the progress of epitaxial expansion, the company plans to set up a hospital management joint venture with Gulou Hospital. The form of cooperation is expected to be company holdings and Gulou Hospital's participation in shares. We are optimistic about this cooperation model. This will bind the company to Gulou Hospital, form a more stable and reliable model, and achieve a win-win situation. As far as the company is concerned, in the future, the company can form a fixed and mature epitaxial expansion model based on this platform, and train a team of doctors on this platform. As far as Gulou is concerned, on the one hand, cooperation with Jinling will continue to enhance Gulou's influence in Anhui, Jiangsu, and on the other hand, Gulou Group can also obtain a certain amount of investment income through equity participation. The acquisition of Anqing Hospital is progressing steadily. We expect the acquisition of Anqing to be settled by the end of the year. After the company's acquisition of Anqing Hospital, it may still be the “Jinling+Gulou” cooperative medical model. Anqing Hospital's predecessor was Sinopec Anqing Petrochemical General Plant Staff Hospital, which has a similar background to Yizheng Hospital (the predecessor was Sinopec Yizheng Chemical Fiber Company Staff Hospital), and we expect Anqing Hospital to completely replicate Yizheng's model. Anqing Hospital covers an area of 50 acres and has no expansion plans yet. In the future, it will seek growth mainly by improving the utilization rate of beds, improving management efficiency, and adding special departments. The current revenue scale of Anqing Hospital is about 200 million yuan, and the profit is more than 10 million. We expect Anqing Hospital to at least double its revenue and profit scale after it matures. The majority shareholders of the Group promise to hold shares in Zhongshan Pharmaceutical, Bai Jingyu Pharmaceutical, and Ed Keteng, which hold the Group's assets. If profits are achieved, priority will be placed on Jinling Pharmaceutical. The Edkay Research Institute is an R&D institution of the Nanjing Pharmaceutical Industry Group. It has three major businesses: biomedical R&D and R&D outsourcing, biological reagents and medical diagnosis, and professional incubation services. Currently, there are no industrialized products, and it is in a state of loss. Bai Jingyu produces APIs and formulations, and has a profit of about 20 million yuan (about 7-8 million is rent income), but the equity structure is scattered, and a certain degree of integration is required if the acquisition is to be realized. Zhongshan Pharmaceutical mainly uses traditional Chinese medicine formulations, and lost a bit due to factors such as plant relocation. In view of the company's priority acquisition rights promised by the majority shareholders, we believe that Jinling Pharmaceutical has the power to decide on the acquisition of the above three group assets, and that the asset injection can be expected. Profit forecast and valuation: The company plans to divest its Hefei pharmaceutical factory. Since it has not been decided, the impact on profits will not be considered yet. We forecast that the company's EPS for 14-16 is 0.42, 0.53, and 0.60 yuan, respectively. According to the pricing of pharmaceuticals and medical services, they will be given 22 times PE in 15 years and 60 times PE for medical services in 15 years, with a total market value of 9.5 billion yuan, corresponding share capital of 504 million shares, a target price of 18.80 yuan, and a “buy” rating. Risk warning: The risk of price reduction for Chironin

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