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【银河证券】海南高速:公路主业萎缩,房地产将成新的发展突破口

中國銀河 ·  Jun 18, 2009 00:00  · Researches

Compensation income from road investment, real estate development, and hotel services are the main sources of revenue for the Hainan Expressway. The revenue ratios for the three businesses were 48%, 28%, and 24%, respectively. From the perspective of profitability, real estate is the most profitable, highway revenue is stable, and businesses such as hotel services lose money. As compensation income from road investment continues to pay off debt and interest over 20 years, the company's business is gradually shrinking when there are no new road property BOT investment projects. According to estimates that the principal amount will be reduced by 50 million yuan per year and the loan interest rate of 6%, the comprehensive compensation income of the company's toll road BOT project will be reduced by about 3 million yuan per year, gradually from close to 90 million yuan in 2008 to less than 70 million yuan in 2012. Due to the gradual decline in revenue from the main highway business, the company's operating pressure continues to increase, and seeking new business breakthroughs has become an issue that company management must consider. Real estate is becoming a new area of business development for the company. The company has development projects of various scales in Sanya, Qionghai, and Haikou. Currently, the total development area of these projects exceeds 200,000 square meters, of which about 60,000 square meters in Sanya and 140,000 square meters in Qionghai. It is estimated that the completed area in 2010 and 2011 will be 40,000 square meters and 160,000 square meters, respectively, and sales revenue can reach 280 million yuan and 480 million yuan. In 2010, real estate development revenue will exceed road revenue, and the company's business structure will fundamentally change. The company's hotel business mainly comes from Treasure Island hotels in Haikou, Sanya, Qionghai and Wanning. Currently, most of the hotel business is in a loss-making state. Segmental valuation calculations show that the company's internal value is 3.128 billion yuan (internal value of each share is 3.16 yuan). Among them, the highway business is worth 240 million yuan, the hotel business is worth 340 million yuan, and the real estate business is worth 2,503 billion yuan. The secondary market price during the reporting period was 3.93 yuan, which is higher than the intrinsic value. Considering that the company is in the business adjustment stage and there are internal value enhancement factors brought about by business transformation and new asset injection, we gave the company a “careful recommendation” rating for the first time.

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