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【海通证券】现代投资:分流影响以及大规模的资本开支限制公司业绩提升空间

海通證券 ·  Oct 30, 2012 00:00  · Researches

The company disclosed 3 quarterly reports. From January to September, the company achieved operating income of 1,169 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.97%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was about 453 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.77%; and basic EPS of 0.76 yuan. Among them, revenue for the third quarter was 329 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 31.06%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 146 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 29.69%; and a quarterly EPS of 0.24 yuan. The company's revenue and profit declined markedly in the third quarter. The company currently has 3 road properties, including the Changyong Expressway, Changtan Expressway, and Tanlei Expressway, with a total mileage of about 246.70 kilometers. Toll road business revenue accounts for 95% of the company's total revenue. Among them, Changtan Road and Tan Lei Road are the main ones, accounting for about 95% of the toll business. The company's revenue and profit declined by 31% and 30% respectively in the third quarter. Apart from the decline in traffic, especially trucks, brought about by the economic slowdown, the Tanlei Expressway quality improvement project also had a partial diversion impact. Construction of the Tanlei Expressway upgrade project began on May 22. The first phase of the project is the Majiahe interchange in Xiangtan to Dapu in Hengdong. The total length is 103.952 kilometers, and it was successfully completed and opened to traffic on October 17 (phase 1 project). The company's main road production is located on the Beijing-Hong Kong-Macao Expressway, and the opening of a parallel channel has had a certain diversion impact. Transit traffic on the Hunan section of the Beijing-Hong Kong-Macao Expressway accounts for more than 1/3 of truck traffic. With the development of expressway construction in Hunan, road network encryption causes transportation demand to be redistributed within the highway network, causing vehicles to divert or flow to other passageways such as intercity railways. It is expected that this will have a negative impact on Changtan Road and Tanlei Road to a certain extent. (1) For the Changtan Expressway: The Changzhu Tan Intercity Railway will be opened to traffic in the second half of 2014. The Changzhu Tan Intercity Railway includes three sections of Changsha-Zhuzhou, Changsha-Xiangtan, and Changsha-Lei Feng Avenue. Once the project is completed, it will only take 24 minutes from Changsha to Zhuzhou and 25.5 minutes from Changsha to Xiangtan. (2) For the Tanlei Expressway: The parallel corridors include the opening of the entire Xiangtan-Linwu section of the Beijing-Hong Kong-Macao double line in 2013; the Hunan section of the Yueyang-Rucheng-Guangzhou Expressway opened to traffic in 2013, etc. The company has built an industrial pattern of “one main and three wings”. Considering that expressway operations have a time limit, the company is experimenting with industrial transformation, and has now constructed a “one main and three wings” industrial pattern, with highway construction as the main body, a financial platform based on large futures, a financial platform based on Anxun investment, and an industrial platform based on Hyundai Weport. However, diversified businesses have yet to contribute to performance. Profit forecasts and investment advice. The company's current low valuation level mainly reflects the negative impact of the market on the diversion of its parallel lanes and huge capital expenses (acquisition of the unfinished Changxiang Expressway and Licha Expressway under the majority shareholders, with an investment scale of 7.7 billion yuan and 7.9 billion yuan respectively, and will be completed at the end of 2012 and the end of 2013). We expect the company's operating income for 2012-2014 to be 1,680 billion yuan, 1,773 billion yuan and 1,917 billion yuan respectively, and the EPS for each year is 1.03 yuan, 1.07 yuan, and 1.15 yuan respectively. The latest closing price corresponding to the 2012 and 2013 dynamic PE values is 8.1 times and 7.8 times, maintaining a “neutral” rating, and the target price is 8.55 yuan, or 8 times PE in 2013. risk factors. The impact of the renovation and expansion and opening of parallel lanes on the company's traffic flow is uncertain; the impact of toll road policy changes on the industry is uncertain.

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