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【长江证券】现代投资:车流恢复毛利增加,净利改善滞后显现

長江證券 ·  Apr 29, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Key events in the report describe Hyundai Investment's 2015 quarterly report. Revenue increased 157% year over year to 1,289 billion yuan, gross margin decreased 35.19 percentage points year over year to 24.62%, and realized net profit increase of 0.48% year on year to 93 million yuan, corresponding EPS of 0.09 yuan. Incident review gross profit increased by about 18 million, and the increase in net profit will be delayed. The company's revenue in the first quarter increased sharply by 157% year on year, while gross margin fell 35.19 percentage points to 24.62% year on year. The main focus was on commodity spot trading, which was acquired in the fourth quarter, which greatly boosted revenue while lowering the company's overall gross profit margin. Considering the low profit margin of commodity trading, we judge that the business has not contributed significantly to profit for the time being. On the highway side, with the continuous return of traffic on the Tanlei Expressway and the opening of the Xuhuai Expressway's “guillotine road” this year, the company achieved gross profit of 317 million yuan, an increase of nearly 18 million over the same period last year. However, due to a year-on-year increase of 12.6 million and 5.06 million in financial expenses and 5.06 million, respectively, net profit of 93 million yuan was achieved, which is basically the same as last year. Considering that the company's financial expenses increased significantly from Q2 last year (financial expenses for the four quarters of last year were 110 million, 131 million, 116 million, and 143 million, respectively), last year's Q1 financial expense base was low, so the increase in traffic flow may have driven the year-on-year growth rate of performance even more significantly starting in the second quarter. Traffic flow resumed steadily at the Tanlei Expressway, and the Xuhuai Expressway benefited from the opening of the “guillotine road”. In the first quarter of 2015, the Tanlei Expressway entered the second year after the overhaul was completed. The average daily converted traffic volume increased 8% year-on-year, and the traffic flow recovery situation was good. However, due to the opening of the “guillotine road” on the east side of the Xhuai Expressway in early 2015, the average daily traffic volume for the first quarter of this year was 22,900 vehicles, an increase of 82% over 12,600 vehicles in the second half of 2014. At the same time, considering the incremental traffic flow brought about by the Tanshao Expressway overhaul, it is expected that the traffic flow of the Xuhuai Expressway will increase by 80%-100% year-on-year throughout the year, improving performance by more than 50 million. Environmental protection and road business fully complement each other, and we are optimistic about breakthroughs in environmental protection transformation. We are optimistic about the company's transformation and breakthrough in the field of environmental protection — environmental protection as a capital-intensive industry complements the highway business with abundant cash flow, and the company's local state-owned enterprise background has enhanced its ability to obtain orders. Last year, the company signed a 540 million environmental protection project order and acquired 51% of Zhongke Clean Energy's shares in November, proving that its model of integrating “resources” + “capital” and “technology” to quickly enter the market was gradually verified. Furthermore, the modern environment initiated the new Third Board listing process to give the market a benchmark for revaluing the company's value. Reiterate the recommendation. We are firmly optimistic that the investment logic of the company's “main business performance inflection point+PPP trend beneficiaries+environmental protection platform” remains unchanged. We predict that the company's 2015-2017 EPS will be 0.53 yuan, 0.67 yuan, and 0.80 yuan, respectively, corresponding to 19, 15, and 13 times, and reaffirm the “recommended” rating.

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