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【天相投资】赣能股份:一季度燃煤成本涨幅超预期,盈利大幅下滑

天相投資 ·  Apr 30, 2011 00:00  · Researches

From January to March 2011, the company achieved operating income of 601 million yuan, an increase of 16.0% over the previous year; operating profit and net profit attributable to owners of the parent company were 57.48 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 707.7%; affected by the sharp rise in thermal power and coal costs, the performance fell short of expectations. Hourly growth in thermal power utilization resumed in 2011. In 2010, there was a lot of hydropower output and excess thermal power production capacity in Jiangxi Province, and the company's thermal power unit utilization hours declined year-on-year, which dragged down revenue growth. Since the first quarter of this year, electricity demand in Jiangxi Province has shown rapid growth, and the utilization of thermal power equipment hours has now rebounded, driving the company's operating income to increase during the reporting period. Looking ahead to the whole year, we need to be wary of insufficient supply of coal. The increase in coal costs in the first quarter exceeded expectations, and profitability declined sharply. All of the coal required for the power generation of the company's thermal power plants was procured by Jiangtou Fuel Company. The estimated total purchase amount in 2011 was 1,852-1,989 billion yuan, an increase of 27.6-37.0% over the actual amount actually incurred in 2010. Considering the electricity supply and demand situation in Jiangxi Province this year, we expect the company's thermal power generation capacity to increase by about 15% year on year, so the average unit fuel cost for the whole year will rise between 11-19% year on year. The pressure on the company's coal-burning costs increased sharply in the first quarter, and the consolidated gross margin reached only 1.1%, falling 11.4 and 6.1 percentage points from the previous year and month respectively, which became the main reason for the sharp decline in operating profit. The investment income of participating companies declined year on year, and the impact throughout the year is yet to be seen. The company's investment income for the first quarter decreased by 7.33 million yuan year-on-year (a decrease of 30.4%), mainly due to a year-on-year decline in profits from participating in expressway companies. In 2010, the company's net profit fell 10.7% year on year, and the overall profit situation this year remains to be seen. The year-on-year fluctuation is expected to be less than in the first quarter, and it is expected that it will continue to contribute steadily to investment income. Relying on introducing strategic investors to improve the operating and development environment. The approval process for the Peng Ze and Wanan Yanjiashan nuclear power project in which the company participated was suspended due to the earthquake in Japan, reducing the pressure on the company's capital expenditure in the short term, but the Fengdian Phase III thermal power project (2*1 million kilowatts), which holds 55% of the shares, is awaiting approval from the National Development and Reform Commission. It is expected that construction will be approved this year. It is simply estimated that the company's capital investment is 880 million yuan, and the company's cash balance at the end of 2010 is 345 million yuan, which is difficult to support. The company plans to fully launch refinancing work in the direction of targeted additional issuance in 2011, introduce strategic investors, resolve capital bottlenecks for sustainable development, and improve the company's governance environment at the same time. Performance growth has been weak in the past two years, so focus is on investment opportunities on the theme of refinancing. The company's main business operations in the past two years have still been hampered by bottlenecks in capacity expansion and pressure on coal costs. If feed-in tariffs cannot be raised reasonably, it will be difficult to escape losses. It is difficult for the Fengdian Phase III project to contribute to performance until 2013. We maintain the company's “neutral” investment rating, so we can pay due attention to refinancing theme investment opportunities. Key risk tips. The approval process for planning projects has been slower than anticipated; difficulties have been encountered in refinancing and introducing strategic investors; the growth rate of electricity demand in Jiangxi Province has declined, and the profitability of the company's stock assets has declined because the increase in coal prices has exceeded expectations, etc.

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