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【国泰君安证券】赣能股份:受益于国企改革和新电改的地方性电企

國泰君安 ·  Jun 4, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points: Investment suggestions: The electricity supply and demand environment in Jiangxi Province has improved. Coupled with falling coal prices, the company's stock asset profits have recovered to a historically high level in the past two years, and high-capacity reserve projects have been substantially promoted to open up room for future performance growth. In the future, new electricity reform will be implemented on the electricity sales side. Local power generation companies are the most competitive electricity sellers other than the original power grid companies, and companies are expected to benefit from this and are more flexible. The company introduced SDIC Electric Power as a strategic second shareholder, which is in line with the overall idea of state-owned enterprise reform in Jiangxi Province. With government support, the company is expected to obtain new project development opportunities. The listing of leading nuclear power companies will drive upward in the valuation of participating nuclear power companies. The company's market value of 100 million yuan corresponds to its nuclear power equity and installed capacity ranking first among participating nuclear power companies, which will benefit significantly. The company's net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company in 2015-2017 is estimated to be 4.56 billion yuan, 4.98, and 554 million yuan, respectively. The corresponding EPS is 0.70, 0.77, and 0.86 yuan, respectively. The comprehensive PE and PB valuations give the company a target price of 24.0 yuan, which is covered for the first time, and a “gain” rating is given. Benefit from the new electricity reform and the liberalization of electricity sales. Judging from the operating characteristics of power systems, third parties that do not own power sources or power grid assets have entered the field of electricity sales and lack a clear form of value creation and an effective profit model. Local power generation companies with power assets are expected to win more large and medium-sized industrial and commercial users in combination with their regional background, and are more likely to benefit from the liberalization of the electricity sales side. The electricity sales market capacity in Jiangxi Province is roughly estimated at 45.1 billion yuan. The market capacity corresponding to the company's market value is in the first tier of provincial state-owned power generation companies, benefiting from strong flexibility l pioneers in state-owned enterprise reform, and introduced in-depth cooperation in war investment. As early as 2010, the company considered introducing strategic investors to seek better development of the main business while settling capital reserves for projects. With the introduction of SDIC Electric Power, it is expected to obtain new projects and achieve rapid growth with government support. Risk factors: Utilization of thermal power has declined hourly, coal prices have risen above expectations, progress in reserve projects has fallen short of expectations, and follow-up cooperation with SDIC Electric Power has lacked bright spots.

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