Judging from the company's business structure, segmented valuations can be used, road businesses can use PE or DCF valuations, real estate can use NAV valuations, and the hotel and travel service industry can use PB valuations, etc. The company's main business is highway and related business. As the only expressway company in Hainan Province, it is limited by the highway business model in Hainan Province, and the toll road business will hardly develop in the future. Existing projects are BOT models, and profits are basically fixed. Looking at it now, growth in other related businesses is limited. It is estimated that the road business (including the investment income of Haiqi Transportation Group) can contribute nearly 30 million yuan to net profit every year, giving 12-15 times PE a valuation of 36-450 million yuan. In the real estate business, due to the sharp rise in housing prices in Hainan, it is more difficult to predict the average housing prices for related projects, and housing prices are critical to NAV valuation. Based on the current average housing prices in major cities in Hainan Province, the preliminary estimate is that the real estate business can contribute 3 billion yuan in cumulative net profit. If housing prices continue to skyrocket, the valuation can be raised. Hotels and other PBs are valued at about 300 million yuan. However, up to the close of trading on January 21, 2010, the total market value of the Hainan Expressway was nearly 7.7 billion yuan, far higher than the current valuation results. Considering the uncertainty of housing prices and the future development of the company's real estate business, etc., the rating will not be given for the time being.
【中信证券】海南高速调研快报:加大地产投资,支撑业绩增长
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