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【中金公司】现代投资:主要机会在提价预期,大修和分流将带来负面影响

中金股份 ·  Dec 23, 2010 00:00  · Researches

Investment highlights: For the first time, we covered modern highways and gave it a “neutral” investment rating. We think it is possible for the company to raise rates, but major road products may be overhauled in 2011, and there is a risk of diversion starting in 2012. The company's current low valuation level provides a certain margin of safety, and has certain trading opportunities under the influence of anticipated price increases. Raising the rate to the industry level will lead to a 25.7% increase in profits: the highway toll rate in Hunan Province is more than 10% lower than in neighboring provinces, and provincial trading is currently actively applying for an increase in the toll standard. We believe that with inflationary pressure receding, the price adjustment application is expected to pass. According to our estimates, a 1% rate increase will lead to a 1.7% increase in profit; if fees are in line with neighboring provinces, the price increase will have a positive impact of 25.7% on profits. Existing road sections will be overhauled in 2011 and 2012, and depreciation costs will be added every year after completion: We expect that the company will begin overhauling projects starting in 2011. Based on the construction cost of 15 million per kilometer, it is estimated that the overhaul cost will increase by 3.75 billion yuan, and starting in 2013, an additional depreciation cost of about 150 million yuan will be added every year. The completion of the entire Beijing-Guangzhou high-speed railway line began in 2012, and the Beijing-Zhuhai double line will divert the company's current traffic flow: we expect the company's main road sections to naturally increase by 8% in 2012, the diversion impact of railways and highways will be 7% and 6%, respectively, and the negative impact of overhauls will be 5%; overall, traffic on the company's main road sections will drop by about 10% in 2012. Financial forecast: Regardless of price increases, the company's net profit in 2011 will increase 7% year on year, but profits will decline by about 8% in 2012 due to diversion and overhauls. Valuation and recommendations: The company's price-earnings ratio in 2011 was only 11.0 times, a 21% discount compared to the industry average. However, considering that the company will continue to face the risk of diversion, the company's current stock price is still not attractive enough, giving it a “neutral” investment rating. Risk: The time and magnitude of the price increase was weaker than expected, and the impact of diversion and overhaul costs exceeded expectations.

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