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【长江证券】现代投资:主业拐点为纲,环保转型添翼

長江證券 ·  Nov 9, 2014 00:00  · Researches

The main focus of the report is the main road industry: building a safety margin, and two factors outline an inflection point in performance. Modern investment focuses on highways, creating a road industry pattern “based in Changzhu Tan and looking at western Xiangxi from afar.” Based on the double impact of the return of traffic after the completion of the Tanlei Expressway overhaul and the completion of the “guillotine road” of the Xuhuai Expressway, the company reached a phased bottom in its performance in 2014, and the performance growth rate for the next two years exceeded 25%. One main and three wings sounded the trumpet of cross-industry, with a platform-based structure, moving towards a new era of comprehensive development. The imperfections in the expressway business in the toll period forced the company to find new growth methods through cross-industry development and sounded a new trumpet for cross-industry development. One main three-wing model was formed: environmental protection platform (2009 Hyundai Powerport); financial platform (2000 Anxun Investment, 2013 Anxun Guarantee, 2013 Anxun Microfinance); and financial platform (2008, Dayou Futures). 1) Company grouping has gradually taken shape: corporate investment and financing platform+industrial structure of industry; 2) regional highway investment and financing platform+highway cash cow business, with strong hematopoietic function providing a powerful engine for diversification; 3) the general trend of PPP (government and social capital cooperation model), the company has clearly benefited as a state-owned investment and financing platform. Modern environmental protection, different platform positioning, different growth speed. As a state-owned enterprise, the company has abundant government resources and has formed strong investment and financing capabilities based on highway business. Under resources+capital endowments, the company defines itself as an integrated platform for environmental protection resources. Over the past five years, the company has expanded rapidly and positioned accurately, forming an excellent position in the industry. We are very optimistic about the company's platform model and judge that the company will continue its rapid growth trend in the future. “Main business performance inflection point+PPP trend beneficiaries+environmental platform” investment logic. We expect the company's EPS from 2014 to 2016 to be 0.37 yuan, 0.53 yuan, and 0.67 yuan (fully diluted), respectively, and corresponding PE to be 17 times, 12 times, and 9 times, respectively. We are optimistic about the company's “inflection point in main business performance+beneficiaries of PPP megatrends+environmental protection platform” and give it a “recommended” rating.

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