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【光大证券】海南高速:房地产开始占主导地位,业绩即将快速增长

光大證券 ·  Feb 1, 2010 00:00  · Researches

The main business shrank, hotels lost money, and real estate became the focus, covered for the first time, and not rated: The main sources of the company's business revenue are transportation, real estate, and services. The transportation industry is gradually declining, and the service industry is basically losing money. The biggest focus is on the development of real estate. The main transportation business is gradually shrinking: The return on investment period for the company's BOT project is “20+5” years. The calculation began in 1994. With the return of principal, the revenue of the project gradually shrank. It is estimated that in 2010 it will be around 80 million yuan, declining year by year. Basic losses in the hotel project: Currently, the company has 4 hotels, namely Haikou Treasure Island Hotel, Sanya Treasure Island Hotel, Wanning Treasure Island Hotel, and Qionghai Treasure Island Hotel; Haikou hotels are basically in balance between profit and loss. Sanya hotels are large losers. Qionghai Hotel is newly opened, and the overall hotel business has a loss of about 10 million yuan. Real estate projects are the company's biggest focus: the company's main business is shrinking, while real estate is gradually growing. The future focus is on the continued rapid development of the real estate industry. The company currently has four main real estate projects, distributed in Qionghai, Sanya and Danzhou, with a cumulative land area of 826,600 square meters and a construction area of about 1,014,700 square meters. Since 2010, it has contributed to performance, showing explosive growth. (1) Qionghai project: The company has two projects in Qionghai, namely Ruihai Water City and Ruihai Jialang Palace. The construction area is 2281,000 square meters and 101,200 square meters respectively. The floor price is lower. Ruihai Water City is about 190,000/mu, and Jialang Haoting is about 450,000/mu. Ruihai Water City has already opened for sale. The opening price is about 4,200 yuan/square meter. Currently, the average price is 8,500 yuan/square meter, the price of good floors is 10,000 yuan/square meter or more, and the land, construction, security, and supporting facilities are about 3,000 yuan/square meter. The profit margin for the project is large, and it is expected that gradual settlement will begin in 2010. (2) Sanya project: The project under construction is Ruihai Garden. This plot of land was previously a bus station, then changed to a real estate project, covering an area of about 17,800 square meters and a construction area of about 60,000 square meters. It is expected to open in May and June. The surrounding project price is 13,000 to 14,000 yuan/square meter, land costs and construction support are about 6,000 yuan/square meter, and settlement is gradual from 2010 to 2012. (3) Danzhou project: The project was acquired by the company in December 2009, covers an area of 625,800 square meters, and has not yet been planned. It is expected that gradual settlement will begin in 2012. The land price of the project is about 320,000 to 330,000 yuan/mu, equivalent to a floor area price of 487 yuan/square meter (calculated based on a floor area ratio of 1), and the surrounding housing price is about 4,000 yuan/square meter. Highlights of future company value enhancement: (1) The company is speeding up land acquisition and strategic transformation into a real estate company. Currently, the company's main business is still the road business, but from 2010 onwards, real estate revenue will dominate. The company will essentially become a real estate company, and settlement revenue will increase year by year. If the company's land acquisition and development speed accelerates, the performance will exceed expectations. (2) Benefit from the construction of a tourist island in Hainan. According to information, Hainan plans to have four airports in the future. Currently, it has two airports, Haikou Meilan Airport and Sanya Phoenix International Airport. The future plans are to rebuild airports in Qionghai and Danzhou, while the company's project reserves in Qionghai and Danzhou account for 70% of the total construction area, so future benefits will be significant. (3) The company is the only company listed by the Provincial State-owned Assets Administration Commission. The state-owned holding position is difficult to change, so there is room for imagination to inject assets into the imagination. (4) The government pays back the arrears. According to the 2009 interim report, the company's accounts receivable and other accounts receivable totaled 688 million yuan, mainly due from the Hainan Provincial Transportation Department. If this part of the problem is solved, the company's assets will be revitalized. Performance forecast: According to the progress of the company's transportation industry, service industry and real estate projects, etc., the estimated operating income from 2009 to 2011 is 155.85 million yuan, 96.46 million yuan and 1419.12 million yuan, and net profit attributable to the parent company is about 5876 million yuan, 274.28 million yuan and 417.62 million yuan. The corresponding EPS is 0.06 yuan, 0.28 yuan and 0.42 yuan. Risk analysis: Risks in the Hainan real estate market, the company's real estate industry is developing slowly, and the problem of government arrears is difficult to resolve.

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