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【银河证券】高鸿股份:面向移动互联网的华丽转身

中國銀河 ·  Oct 21, 2014 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points: Building a “100 billion streaming” recharge and card exchange business platform. Explosive growth assumes that 50% of the mobile phone charges of the three major operators will be recharged online via the Internet in the medium to short term (2014 to 2016), which will form an Internet phone bill recharge market of more than 500 billion dollars (third-party Internet companies will occupy the mainstream of Internet phone bill recharge due to experience and other factors); while objective factors such as market demand and channel costs drive operator recharge cards to become an important medium for Internet micropayments, which are expected to expand to tens of billions of dollars of integrated card exchange markets. Relying on comprehensive advantages such as scale, capital, and platform, Gaohong Co., Ltd. (Gaoyang Jiexun) has gradually established a leading position in the Internet phone recharging/card exchange market, and can grow into a platform-based business with a gross profit scale of 1 billion dollars in the short to medium term. Relying on the Internet phone bill recharge business platform and the vast offline channel system of the 19th Easy Station, the growth prospects for the payment business are promising. 19 Pay (owned by Gaoyang Jiexun, has a third-party payment license) and Gaoyang Jiexun's management team have signed an agreement to cooperate in the POS business. The advantages complement each other. 19 Pay's POS business is still an important layout stage from 2014 to 2015; with the penetration of the 19 Easy Station Network, the number of 19 Pay POS machines operating is expected to explode from 2014 to 2015, and the POS business is also expected to achieve rapid growth. It is expected that 2016 will begin to contribute significantly to performance. Traditional business: Give full play to existing comprehensive advantages, revolve around the transformation of mobile Internet, and lay out mobile big data, offline application distribution platforms, and Internet lotteries. Valuation and investment recommendations. We expect the company's net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company from 2014 to 2016 to be 82 million (+57.63%), 240 million (+192.37%), and 434 million (+80.51%), and EPS of 0.14 yuan, 0.41 yuan, and 0.74 yuan, respectively. According to the business segment valuation, Gao Hong Co., Ltd. was given a reasonable market value of 12.4 billion yuan and a reasonable valuation of 21.23 yuan per share, corresponding to 52 times PE in 2015 and 29 times in 2016, maintaining the “recommended” rating. The catalyst for stock price performance: 1. Phone bill recharge business flow maintained month-on-month growth, new progress in payment business layout, and extended expansion of retained additional funds; 2. Significant breakthroughs were made in promoting data traffic package recharge business; 3. Clarification of policies related to internet lottery licenses or obtaining relevant licenses. Main risk factors: 1. Policy changes such as payment policies, operator phone recharge interface management policies, and internet lottery licenses.

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