I. Overview of events
We visited Ankai bus (000868) on September 22nd and had an in-depth exchange with the office of the board of directors on the company's recent operation.
II. Analysis and judgment
Luxury bus leader, the domestic market bus, tourism and group cars to maintain steady growth.
The company introduces the full load-bearing technology of Kasbauer company of Germany (the full-load car body has the characteristics of fuel saving, environmental protection and safety, and is widely used in Europe, which is the forefront of bus technology in the world), and maintains a leading edge in the luxury bus market, occupying 1max 3 market share of the domestic luxury bus market. Although the volume of the luxury car market is small, the unit price is up to 1.2 million yuan, and the gross profit can reach 20%, which is higher than the added value of ordinary buses. Benefiting from the steady growth of the bus, group and tourist bus markets, it will still contribute to the stable performance of the company.
The bus export market has recovered strongly, and the company has repeatedly won big orders.
Due to the resumption of bus orders cut and postponed during the financial crisis in the past two years, the demand for passenger cars in traditional export destinations such as South America and the Middle East has gradually increased. In addition, with the effective development of new markets, China added new bus exporting countries such as Australia and Macedonia in the first half of the year, while the export markets of emerging countries such as Brazil, India and Russia continued to grow. The bus export market continued to strengthen in the first half of this year. In terms of export volume, bus export sales in the first half of the year were 3.86 billion yuan, an increase of 50.59% over the same period last year. The export of China's bus market will continue to be strong in the future, with a growth rate of 30% to 50% in the next few years.
On May 4 this year, Ankai signed an export contract with Saudi Hafir Transportation Company for 3000 school buses, totaling US $152 million, or about 1 billion yuan, making it the largest order for China's bus exports this year. In addition, Ankai will export 280 passenger cars to Russia this year. Saudi Arabia has ordered 3000 school buses, which are expected to be delivered this year and 2200 in the first half of next year. In addition, after realizing the first mass export of Chinese passenger cars to the United States last year, Ankai has new cooperation in the United Kingdom, Australia, South Africa and the Hong Kong Special Administrative region. Export gross margins are higher than domestic sales, and new orders are expected to contribute 15 per cent and 25 per cent to the company's total sales and profits in 2011 and 2012.
New energy bus: pure electric bus comes first, and its sales have doubled this year.
In the future, buses will be the main market for new energy vehicles, and electric vehicles will be the development direction. The company is the most mature bus enterprise in the manufacture and operation of pure electric buses in China, with 400 electric buses in operation in 16 cities, accounting for 80% of the pure electric bus market share. The company can produce pure electric bus electric control and vehicle control system, motor outsourcing. Vehicle batteries try a new model of direct leasing by customers, with subsidies for new energy vehicles and lower operating costs to offset the price difference in purchase costs. In recent years, the company has gradually mass produced pure electric buses, with sales of 200 last year and 200 in the first half of this year, with an estimated 400 cars for the whole year, which can double the growth.
Third, profit forecast and investment suggestions
In the short term, strong export growth brings flexibility to the performance; in the long run, the company's new energy vehicle business has great potential for development; luxury passenger cars are the future bus development direction. It is estimated that the EPS of the company in 11-13 years is 0.25,0.29,0.37 yuan respectively, corresponding to the dynamic price-earnings ratio of 44,39,30 times in 11-13 years. For the first time, the company was cautiously recommended for rating, with a target price of 13 yuan.
Fourth, risk tips:
The demand of export market and new energy bus is lower than expected; the cost is higher than expected; and the market systemic risk.
