It is estimated that the EPS of the company from 12 to 14 years is 0.20,0.22,0.25 yuan respectively, and the current stock price corresponds to 16.6X, 15.0X and 13.2 XPE. From the absolute valuation point of view, considering the actual value of land, the company's revalued net assets per share is 4.56 yuan, and the current stock price is discounted by 27%. In the short term, the price-to-earnings ratio is slightly on the high side, but in the medium and long term, the company's traditional business faces new opportunities due to urbanization; the change of major shareholders also brings about strategic transformation and business structure upgrading, giving a "recommended" investment rating for the first time.
Main points:
The company is one of the few listed companies owned by Hainan state-owned assets, and the shareholders have a clear intention to promote the listing of excellent assets as a whole. In March 2012, Hainan Transportation Department became the actual controller of the company, with a shareholding ratio of 20.05%. The controlling shareholder Hai Traffic Control official website clearly will actively create conditions to promote the overall listing of excellent assets. At present, the company is subordinate to highway construction and maintenance management, real estate development and sales, tourism services and other three main industries, from the company's income in recent years, profits mainly rely on the real estate industry.
Point one: asset concealment. There are seven land use rights under the company's balance sheet-intangible assets, three of which have not yet been realized. according to the current market transaction price, the actual undervalued land value should be 580 million yuan, and the net assets should be increased by 0.57 yuan per share after deducting book value. the company's actual revalued net assets are 4.56 yuan per share.
Point two: benefiting from urbanization, traditional business is facing new opportunities. In order to speed up the improvement of the transportation infrastructure construction of the international tourism island, the investment and policy tilt of the highway traffic development plan of Hainan Province during the 12th five-year Plan has been increasing, and the Tian zigzag highway framework planning has opened up a broad space for the company's transportation business. At the same time, the company's infrastructure construction also brings opportunities to control related land resources in the future, sharing land appreciation and construction premium.
Point three: strategic transformation, business structure upgrading. The company has bought a 25% stake in Hainan Aerospace Investment Management Co., Ltd., participated in Hainan aerospace characteristic tourism projects and supporting development, and has set up a joint venture cruise yacht industry project company, Hainan High Speed Cruise Yacht Co., Ltd., with the controlling shareholder Haijiao Control. Enter the cruise yacht industry; set up a micro-loan company to get involved in the financial service industry, which can contribute more than 20 million yuan a year. In addition, the company also participates in a 25% stake in SAIC, which is currently promoting its listing.
There is plenty of cash and little debt. The company reported book cash and cash equivalents of nearly 1.3 billion yuan in the third quarter, which is very rich in cash, but the current market capitalization of the company is only 3.3 billion. The debt is only 350 million, there are no short-term and long-term loans, the finance is quite safe, and there is a lot of room for expansion.
Risk Tips:
(1) sales and settlement fall short of expectations
(2) Policy risk
(3) systemic risk.