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【天相投资】海南高速:房地产开发将成为公司业务发展的驱动因素

天相投資 ·  Oct 27, 2009 00:00  · Researches

The 2009 three-quarter report shows that in January-September, it achieved operating income of 103 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.6%; operating profit of 24.73 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.8%; net profit attributable to owners of the parent company of 31.71 million yuan, an increase of 37.7% over the previous year; and basic earnings per share of 0.03 yuan. Compensation income from road investment, real estate development, and hotel services are the main sources of revenue for the Hainan Expressway. The 2009 interim report showed that the revenue ratio of the three businesses was 48%, 28%, and 24%, respectively. From the perspective of profitability, real estate is the most profitable, highway revenue is stable, and businesses such as hotel services lose money. Highway compensation earnings are gradually shrinking. As compensation income from road investment continues to pay off debt and interest over 20 years, the company's business is gradually shrinking when there are no new road property BOT investment projects. According to estimates that the principal amount will be reduced by 50 million yuan per year and the loan interest rate of 6%, the comprehensive compensation income of the company's toll road BOT project will be reduced by about 3 million yuan a year, and real estate is becoming a new field for the company's business development. The company has development projects of various scales in Sanya, Qionghai and Haikou. Currently, the total development area of the project exceeds 200,000 square meters, of which about 60,000 square meters in Sanya and 140,000 square meters in Qionghai. It is estimated that the completed area in 2010 and 2011 will be 40,000 square meters and 160,000 square meters, respectively, and sales revenue can reach 280 million yuan and 480 million yuan. In 2010, revenue from real estate development will exceed revenue from highways. The company's hotel business mainly comes from Treasure Island hotels in Haikou, Sanya, Qionghai and Wanning. Currently, most of the hotel business is in a loss-making state. We expect the company's EPS for 2009 and 2010 to be 0.04 yuan and 0.07 yuan respectively. Based on the closing price of 3.93 yuan on October 27, the corresponding dynamic price-earnings ratio is 98 times and 56 times, respectively, maintaining the company's “neutral” investment rating. Risk warning: Interest rates fall, and companies face the risk of falling revenue from road production.

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