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【平安证券】海南高速:土地成本极低,转型为房地产开发商

平安證券 ·  Dec 29, 2010 00:00  · Researches

The highway business shrank and gradually became a real estate developer. The company's business revenue mainly comes from highways, real estate, and hotel tourism. The three businesses accounted for 48.68%, 26.97%, and 24.33% of 2009 revenue, respectively. The annual compensation income of the road business was reduced by about 3.6 million yuan. The company's expressway business is similar to the nature of “equal debt repayment bonds.” There are no charges on the Hainan Expressway. The Provincial Transportation Department has repaid the total investment of about 1.2 billion yuan over 20 years, reducing the principal amount by about 60 million yuan per year. Based on the 6% five-year loan interest rate, the annual compensation income is roughly reduced by about 3.6 million yuan, and the highway business is gradually shrinking. With extremely low land costs, the real estate industry will become the main support in the future. Currently, the total construction area of the projects sold by the company is 200,000 square meters, the total planned construction area of the projects under construction is more than 200,000 square meters, and there is still an unplanned land area of about 630,000 square meters, which is sufficient for the company's development in the next 3 to 5 years. All of the land was acquired 10 years ago at a very low cost. After 2010, real estate settlement income will increase year by year. At that time, real estate revenue will dominate. If the company's land acquisition and development speed up, the performance will exceed expectations. The hotel business lost roughly 10 million yuan a year. The company has four hotels, namely Haikou Treasure Island Hotel, Sanya Treasure Island Hotel, Wanning Treasure Island Hotel, and Qionghai Treasure Island Hotel. Due to low fees, low occupancy rates, and a small number of rooms, the overall loss of the hotel business was about 10 million yuan. Test the waters of the microfinance loan business. The company recently set up a maritime control microfinance company to engage in small and medium-sized enterprise microfinance loans through bank integration of capital and own capital. Due to the huge market potential and extremely high profit margins of the microfinance business, as well as excellent risk control capabilities, there is huge room for future development of the company's microfinance business. Adequate cash flow and low debt ratios give more room for imagination. The expressway is similar to the “debt service bond” business model, which brings stable cash flow, while the company's steady way of doing business makes the company very rich in cash without major development in other businesses. In recent years, the average monetary capital on the company's account is 539 million yuan, and as of June 30, 2010, the Hainan Provincial Transportation Department still has defaulted on the company's investment compensation of about 696 million yuan. The arrears are expected to be resolved in the near future. Financial expenses have always been negative, and the balance to debt ratio is 16%. We are very hopeful that the company can get rid of the conservative business model and improve the efficiency of the company's capital utilization. We believe that the intrinsic value of the Hainan Expressway is: 0.5 yuan (expressway) +0.8 yuan (hotel) +5.14 yuan (real estate RNAV) = 6.43 yuan, higher than the closing price of 6.08 yuan on December 29, 2010. Given the company's abundant cash flow and low debt ratio, the construction of the Hainan International Tourism Island promoted real estate business and hotel tourism business, giving it a “recommended” rating for the first time.

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