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【天相投资】安凯客车:1季度盈利能力继续提高

天相投資 ·  Apr 18, 2011 00:00  · Researches

In the first quarter of 2011, the company achieved operating income of 656 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.73%; operating profit of 13.19 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 74.6%; net profit attributable to owners of the parent company of 13.42 million yuan, an increase of 8.57%; and EPS of 0.04 yuan. The gross margin for the first quarter increased by 0.63 percentage points over the same period last year. In the first quarter, China sold a total of 101,200 buses, an increase of 13.43% over the previous year. The growth rate of the company's bus sales was lower than that of the industry. Ankai Bus headquarters achieved sales volume of 8.05 million units of buses and chassis, a year-on-year decrease of 12.12%. The decline in bus sales led to a slight year-on-year decline in operating income. However, due to the upward trend in product structure, the company's profitability continued to increase. The company's consolidated gross margin for the first quarter was 10.94%, an increase of 0.63 percentage points over the previous year. We believe that the growth of the bus industry in 2011 is quite certain, and the company's profitability is expected to continue to be maintained. Investment income growth continued to increase significantly year over year. The company achieved investment income of 5.77 million yuan in the first quarter, an increase of 177.24% over the previous year, mainly due to the increase in the performance of Ankai Auto Bridge, a joint venture company holding 40% of the shares. In 2010, Ankai Automobile Bridge achieved a net profit of 47.5 million yuan, an increase of 1.18 times over the previous year, and contributed an estimated investment income of 18.99 million yuan, equivalent to an EPS of 0.06 yuan. It is estimated that in 2011, Ankai Axle's contribution to EPS will reach 0.1 yuan. A new energy bus base was built, and a new Jianghuai bus base was put into operation. The company's projects under construction increased by 31% year-on-year in the first quarter, mainly due to investment in welding and painting workshops and investment in a new base for Jianghuai Bus, a holding subsidiary of the company. At present, the company's new energy vehicle expansion and key powertrain manufacturing and R&D integration projects are progressing smoothly. It is estimated that the annual production of 6,000 new energy buses and 12,000 new energy bus key powertrains will be added in 2014, increasing annual net profit by 240 million yuan. In 2010, the sales volume of Jianghuai buses exceeded 6,000, and the commencement of production at the new base is conducive to raising the high-end level of the company's products, driving up the company's bus sales volume and gross margin. Earnings forecasts and ratings. Regardless of the increase in issuance factors, the 2011-2013 EPS is expected to be 0.32 yuan, 04 yuan, and 0.51 yuan respectively. Using the April 15 closing price of 11.14 yuan technology, the corresponding dynamic PE is 35 times, 28 times, and 22 times, respectively, maintaining the “increase in holdings” rating. Risk warning. (1) Bus sales volume falls short of anticipated risk; (2) Implementation progress of non-public offering and fund-raising projects falls short of anticipated risk.

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