share_log

【东方证券】高鸿股份:发现移动互联的新利润区

東方證券 ·  Sep 19, 2014 00:00  · Researches

Moving from traditional business to new business development, the company is undergoing a transformation. The company's traditional business, government and enterprise information business, IT sales, etc. have maintained stable profitability over a long period of time, forming an important part of the company's historical image. However, since last year, the company's online shopping mall has been involved in the lottery ticket sales business, and has once again acquired the remaining shares of Gaoyang Jiexun to fully participate in the recharge platform and third-party payment business, and the expansion and layout of the company's new business is gradually taking shape. We believe that the company's decision to acquire remaining shares in Gaoyang Jiexun shows confidence in new business development, and that the company is undergoing a process of transformation from business to image. The explosion of mobile payment app users in the first half of the year pushed the Jiexun recharge platform to become the biggest winner behind the scenes. In the first half of 2014, the growth rate of mobile payment app users was significantly ahead of the growth rate of other applications. Mobile payment users alone surged from 125 million at the beginning of the year to 205 million in half a year, directly leading to a surge in recharge traffic from mobile Internet portals such as WeChat and Taobao. In this context, the recharge volume of the Jiexun recharge platform is expected to increase from less than 8 billion dollars last year to 40 billion dollars this year, leading to a sharp increase in the recharge difference revenue. Meanwhile, the card exchange business, which relies on recharge traffic, will usher in room for development. The company is expected to use this opportunity to actively expand high-profitability intermediary businesses with a traffic revenue ratio of 2%-5%, such as game point card exchange, MVNO recharge exchange, and prepaid card exchange. We believe that recharge platforms are a typical new profit zone benefiting from the deep development of mobile internet. They also drive companies to be more motivated to realize the value of the exchange business brought by the platform. The company has become the winner behind the explosion of mobile payment users in the first half of the year. Mobile Internet platform companies with scarce A-shares and mixed ownership reform expectations. Gaoyang Jiexun's business is in the middle of B2B2C. The scale effect enables larger platforms to better and more efficiently carry out recharge services and exchange services for relevant entry-level platforms. The business itself has remarkable platform characteristics, and it is a platform-based company with scarce A-shares. However, as a central enterprise, the company is expected to become a pilot enterprise for state-owned enterprise reform of mixed ownership, and is expected to further boost valuation in the future. We believe that the platform-based characteristics and scarcity of A shares, and the prospects for comprehensive state-owned enterprise reform, are optimistic about the company's future development. Financial forecasts and investment recommendations: We have compiled a comprehensive list of Gaoyang Jiexun since October, predicting the company's earnings per share for 2014-2016 to be 0.16, 0.61, and 0.82 yuan, respectively. At the same time, we separately valued the traditional business, the Goyang Jiexun recharge platform business, and other mobile internet businesses, and considering that the third part had just begun, no valuation was given; only the traditional business and Goyang were valued. Based on the 2015 PE division valuation, we gave the company a valuation of 11.94 billion yuan and a target price of 20.44 yuan. For the first time, we gave a buying rating. Risk warning: competitive risk, policy failure risk, acquisition risk.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment