For the first time, it was covered and given an “gain” rating, and the target price was 15.3 yuan. Gao Hong Co., Ltd. completed the merger and acquisition of Gaoyang Jiexun. The latter is in a leading position in the 100 billion online phone bill recharge market, and the newly expanded comprehensive exchange business is expected to become a new growth point. We expect Gao Hong's 2014-2016 EPS to be 0.12/0.31/0.44 yuan respectively. Compared with comparable companies, we gave the company 50 times PE in 2015, with a target price of 15.3 yuan (corresponding to a market value of 8.9 billion yuan), and gave it an “increase in weight” rating. The “e-commerce” trend of phone bill recharges has already taken hold. We expect domestic operator revenue to maintain steady growth of around 8% in 2014-2016. Influenced by technological advances and changes in consumer habits, mobile phone bill recharge methods will gradually shift from offline physical card recharge to online recharge (including PC and mobile). By the end of 2013, online recharge accounted for about 15% of agent channels, entering an accelerated inflection point, and the “e-commerce” trend is about to accelerate. Goyang Jiexun - a leader in phone bill recharge and a pioneer in comprehensive exchange. According to our estimates, Gaoyang Jiexun's recharge turnover in 2012-2013 was 7.5 billion and 14.6 billion. With channel, technology, and qualification advantages, Goyang Jiexun has built a broad competitive “moat”. It is expected to reach 28 billion and 51.6 billion respectively in 2014-2015, showing a continuous doubling trend, and will expand virtual operators and traffic recharge services. At the same time, relying on the huge turnover of phone bill recharges, the company innovated a profit model and built a comprehensive exchange platform. Phone bill cards can not only be used for settlement and consumption on e-commerce and gaming platforms, but can also be exchanged with prepaid cards such as JD cards to open up supply and demand, and achieve a win-win situation for all parties. Catalysts: Gaoyang Jiexun connected more types of prepaid cards; expanded offline O2O business with 19e; benefiting from state-owned enterprise reforms, equity incentives were implemented in June, and subsequent enterprises were further transformed and developed. Risk warning: IT chain sales profitability declined; integrated exchange platform expansion fell short of expectations.
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【国泰君安证券】高鸿股份首次覆盖报告:话费充值龙头,综合兑换先锋
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