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【国泰君安证券】高鸿股份三季报点评:充值流水高歌猛进,发力综合兑换平台

國泰君安 ·  Oct 21, 2014 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points: Maintain “increase in holdings” and maintain the target price of 17.24 yuan. Gaoyang Jiexun's Q3 flow has maintained a rapid growth trend. Relying on its huge deposit and exchange flow, it wants to build a unique comprehensive exchange platform in China and develop a 100-billion-level digital commodity exchange market. The 2014-15 EPS was maintained at 0.12/0.31 yuan (fully diluted after consolidation), and the target price was maintained at 17.24 yuan, maintaining the “increase in holdings”. Marketing promotion has temporarily curtailed quick profit contributions, and the recharge flow continues to soar. The company's revenue for January-September was 4.2 billion yuan, up 8% year on year; net profit was 2014 million yuan, down 20.4% year on year. The converted Q3 revenue was 1.62 billion yuan, up 2.9% year on year; net profit was 6.09 million yuan, up 529% year on year. We judge that the low profit in January-September was due to the marketing promotion carried out by online phone charge platforms in cooperation with BAT, and this part of the subsidy will be uniformly included in the channel in Q4. Furthermore, according to the cash flow statement, Jiexun's turnover for January-September was about 26.5 billion yuan, and the annual recharge flow is expected to reach more than 40 billion yuan, showing a continuous doubling trend. The capital of Gaoyang Jiexun was increased by 100 million yuan to boost the integrated exchange platform business. At the same time, the company announced that it plans to increase the capital of Gaoyang Jiexun by 100 million yuan and invest in a comprehensive exchange platform business to achieve recycling and mutual exchange of various digital goods. According to Yiguan International, the annual trading volume of digital goods in China has reached more than 100 billion yuan, and the market space is huge. Goyang has extensive industry experience in the field of digital commodities and is expected to establish a strong leading position in the integrated exchange market. The company announced that it will increase the capital of Datang Fusion (Beijing) by 10 million yuan and invest 290 million yuan to build an electronic information industrial park based on the Internet of Things and 3G/4G technology, which is expected to greatly enhance the competitiveness of the company's enterprise informatization business. Catalyst: Gaoyang Jiexun's turnover continues to exceed expectations; the company benefits from state-owned enterprise reforms. Risk warning: Competition for online recharge has intensified; the expansion of integrated exchange platforms has fallen short of expectations.

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