Report guide
Gaohong is undergoing a comprehensive transformation from traditional data communications and IT retail to Internet / mobile Internet. The recharge service has opened business contacts with operators and mainstream Internet companies, and further business innovations such as integrated exchange platforms are worth looking forward to.
Main points of investment
Recharge business has obvious advantages, laying a solid foundation for cooperation with mainstream Internet companies.
The online recharging of mobile phone charges is rapidly infiltrating. The online recharging scale of third-party channels is expected to reach 300 billion yuan in 2016. Mobile Phone Top-Up Service is expected to reach 350 shock 700 / 100 billion yuan in Gaohong shares in 2014-16, with a market share of more than 30%, firmly ranking as the leader in the industry. And take advantage of the recharge business to establish a stable cooperative relationship with major Internet companies (Tencent / BABA / XIAOMI / JD.com, etc.), laying a solid foundation for further development of Internet business.
Layout of a comprehensive exchange platform to open up a market capitalization space of 10 billion yuan
The integrated exchange platform is aimed at hundreds of billions of transactions, and this platform will be officially launched in the near future. In 2015, the main focus is the exchange between telecom recharge cards, game cards and e-commerce cards. The company has signed cooperation agreements with Unicom and Telecom. The mobile system is under construction (undertaken by Gao Yang). The profit model is that both sides charge the price difference. the current commission rate is 2.2%. When it matures, the commission rate will be between 3% and 5%. It is expected to contribute 140 million yuan to profits in 2016.
The competition of mobile Internet is accelerating, and the profit of offline brushing platform is expected to be maintained.
With the accelerated development of mobile Internet, there are more and more APP developers. Offline brushing machine is one of the effective later stages to help APP reach users. Gaohong currently has 150-2 million brushing machines per month, about 20 yuan per machine, which can contribute about 20 million of profits every year.
Profit forecast and valuation
We get a target price of 22.02 yuan from the SOTP valuation method, with a potential increase of 84%. Buy rating. The target price is corresponding to the EPS of 2014-15-16, which is twice as much as 154-67-34. The level of PE is not low, but considering that Gao Hong shares is one of the listed companies of central enterprises, it is time for equity incentives to benefit from this round of SOE reform. In addition, the company's integrated exchange platform is in the investment period and will be centrally released in 2016. It is understandable that the short-term PE is relatively high, and the high valuation can be resolved by high growth in the future.