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【申银万国】鑫茂科技:调研报告

申萬宏源 ·  Jul 1, 2008 00:00  · Researches

Targeted increases are injected into new land reserves. The company plans to issue 70 million shares on a non-public basis, increase the price by 11.16 yuan/share, and raise no more than 630 million yuan. Among them, Xinmao Group, the majority shareholder, subscribed to no less than 25% of the total shares issued, with 70% of the shares of Tianjin Shengjun Technology Company (with 284 acres of developable industrial land), 100% of Bettvio's shares (with 98 acres of developable industrial land), and 30.02% of the shares of Tianjin Xinmao Science Park Co., Ltd. If the targeted additional distribution is successfully implemented, the company's land reserves will reach 418 mu (equity land reserve of 600,000 square meters). The settlement area is expected to be 90,000 and 120,000 square meters in 08/09, contributing about 46% of gross profit. Fan blades began a harvest period in 2008 and exploded in 2009. The company already has an annual production capacity of 300 sets of 750KW fan blades. The self-developed 1.5MW blade mold completed trial production at the end of June and was put into production in the second half of 2008, which can maintain gross margin levels of 30% and 35% respectively. We expect to sell 150 sets of 750KW blades in 2008, 300 sets of 750KW and 150 sets of 1.5MW blades in 2009, contributing 26% of gross profit in 2009. The competitive advantage lies in the two shareholder backgrounds of China Power Investment and China Water Investment, which brings broad leaf market space. The company holds 45% of Xinmao Xinfeng's shares, while China Power Investment and China Water Investment hold 13.5% and 5% shares respectively. The company has now signed 43 orders, 200 sets of orders to be signed, and a potential order of 800,000 kilowatts in the future. We believe that with the shareholder backgrounds of China Power Investment and China Water Investment, Xinmao Xinfeng will obtain more sales guarantees on blade orders. This kind of market resource is still precious in the fiercely competitive fan blade industry. The popularity of China Power Investment and China Water Investment in wind farms across the country will also bring broad market space to the company's blade sales. Lower the profit forecast and maintain the “increase in holdings” rating. Since the progress of blade sales fell short of expectations, we lowered our profit forecasts for 08/09 from 0.67 yuan and 1.58 yuan to 0.51 yuan and 1.38 yuan. We calculated relative valuations according to the segmented total value method. We gave 30 times PE for the 2008 fan blade business, 10 times PE for industrial real estate, and 20 times PE for other businesses, and calculated that the company's reasonable stock price was 7.73 yuan; we gave fan blades 25 times PE in 2009, 8 times PE for industrial real estate, and 16 times PE for other businesses. The company's reasonable stock price was 20.27 yuan. We took the median value and set a target price of 14 yuan within 6 months to maintain the “increase in holdings” rating.

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