share_log

【国金证券】铁岭新城:蓝海里游泳的鱼

國金證券 ·  Mar 26, 2012 00:00  · Researches

Investment Logic Capital Market is the only urban integrated operator with a state-owned background. The company is an enterprise under the Tieling Finance Bureau and is responsible for the first-level development of 22 square kilometers of land in the Tieling New Area. However, compared to other first-level development enterprises, the company is also the sole entity commissioned by the Tieling Municipal Government to be responsible for the comprehensive operation of planning, infrastructure, and utilities in the new area. The Blue Ocean strategy and exclusive business have made the company's profit level higher than the industry average. The company's high profitability is due to its contribution to the local economy, and it has a regional and institutional basis. Because there must be a corresponding spatial carrier to speed up the Tieling economy and the level of urbanization, it is difficult to guarantee the growth rate. In terms of geographical location, the Tieling New Area has a geographical advantage that is naturally connected to Shenyang, the core city of the province. Furthermore, the impact on economically underdeveloped regions after tax sharing reform is even more obvious, and social capital participation must be introduced for land-level development with a long payback period. This is the institutional foundation for Tieling New Town. This is also the reason why the company can achieve a high level of profit. The construction of the new district has entered the harvest period. The average GDP growth rate of Tieling has remained at 18% in the past three years, and the growth rate of fixed asset investment has also achieved 48% growth. The rapid development of the regional economy has formed a healthy interaction with the construction of a new city. Land prices in the new district increased from 220,000 yuan per mu in 2007 to 660,000 yuan, and the company's gross margin also increased from 22% in 2007 to 66% in 2011. The profit model is expected to replicate. The successful development of Tieling New Area will be highly persuasive for Tieling City and other local governments. Tieling was rated by the Academy of Social Sciences as the number one prefecture-level city for overall growth competitiveness in China in 2009. Based on its accumulated development experience and capital market financing window analysis, the company will be the ideal developer for the construction of more new zones in the future. The Tieling Municipal Government also promised to prioritize cooperation with the company when carrying out other land level development projects; in addition, the successful development of the Tieling New Area has already attracted cities inside and outside the province to learn from their experiences. If the business is expanded to other cities within the province or the country, the company's business space will be even wider. The valuation and investment recommendations estimate that the company's earnings per share for 12 and 13 will be 2.43 and 3.07, respectively, with price-earnings ratios of 9.5 and 7.5 times. The company will revalue its net assets of 31.5 yuan per share, which is currently discounted by 27%. Due to the company's unique and exclusive business model, it is given a price-earnings ratio of 13-14 times for 12 years, and the target price is 31.6-34 yuan. It is recommended to buy. Risk warning that the company's projects are concentrated in the Tieling New Area, and the ability to withstand systemic risks is not strong; the peak season for the company's land concessions is generally in the second half of the year, and it is difficult to balance the results of each quarter.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment