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【海通证券】铁岭新城:新城整体运营商

海通證券 ·  Jun 8, 2012 00:00  · Researches

Investment suggestions: Currently, the characteristics of Tieling New Town are: 1) Compared with other first-level development companies, out of 22 square kilometers of Tieling New Town, 16.3 square kilometers have completed “nine roads and one level”, so it can enter the market at any time. Furthermore, the remaining 5.7 square kilometers are currently less developed, and the demolition pressure and later investment are low. 2) The land concession sharing method is superior, and more than 90% of land concession revenue can be retained by listed companies. 3) Tieling Management Company promises that its subsidiary Tieling Caijing will achieve net profit of not less than 678 million yuan and 739 million yuan in 2012 and 2013. According to the calculation of the company's current share capital, the equivalent EPS for 2012 and 2013 was 1.23 to 1.35 yuan. 4) Xincheng's water area is rich in resources and has a superior living environment. After the opening of the Shenyang Ring Road, the Shenyang-Tieling Light Rail, and the Hada High Speed Railway in the later stages, there is still room for land prices in Xincheng to rise. We expect the company's EPS for 2012, 2013, and 2014 to be 1.23, 1.35, and 1.53 yuan. Based on the company's closing price of 10.19 yuan on June 7, it corresponds to PE 8.28 yuan in 2012 and PE 7.55 yuan in 2013. Considering that the company's current financial pressure is low, the introduction of land can reflect performance, and for the first time, the company has been given an “increase in holdings” rating. The company was given a price-earnings ratio of 10 times in 2012, corresponding to the target price of 12.3 yuan. Risk warning: 1) There is an act of reducing the holdings of Xiaofei; 2) Due to the concentration of push in the second half of the year, it is expected that the semi-annual performance release will be limited.

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