There are two main factors that affect the current and future value of the company: first, what is the share reform plan of a company that has not yet been reformed under the China Petroleum & Chemical Corp system; second, the technical feasibility and market prospect of oral recombinant Helicobacter pylori vaccine developed by Chongqing Kangwei Biotechnology Co., Ltd.
In view of the company's current ownership structure and business structure, we believe that it is unlikely that China Petroleum & Chemical will carry out share reform of Yueyang Xingchang through privatization, and that the most likely way is to buy back petrochemical assets.
Chongqing Kangwei Biotechnology Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of the company, relying on the third military Medical University to develop the "oral recombinant Helicobacter pylori vaccine", has completed the third phase of clinical trials and entered the stage of new drug application. although it can not replace antibiotics as a therapeutic drug for patients with stomach disease, it is also promising. It is conservatively estimated that the potential customer of the company in China is 110 million copies, with an annual increment of 4.8 million copies. According to the calculation of 150 yuan per dose of vaccine, this means that the stock market share of domestic gastropathy vaccine is 16.5 billion yuan, and the annual increment share is 720 million yuan.
Assuming that the company sells 3 million, 6 million and 10 million shares respectively from 2008 to 2010, and the prices are 150,120,100 yuan respectively, we expect the company to achieve earnings per share of 0.633 yuan, 1.03yuan and 1.21yuan respectively from 2008 to 2010.
As income is obviously affected by product sales volume and price, we make a sensitivity analysis of the impact of sales volume and price changes on earnings: the ranges of earnings per share from 2008 to 2010 are: 0.513-0.685, 0.813-1.342, 0.869-1.468, respectively.
Under the premise that the WACC is 11.7% and the sustainable growth rate is 5%, the WACC valuation of the company is 25.80 yuan, and the value range is 22.71-29.00 yuan. From the perspective of relative valuation, as the company is not expected to start production until 2008, the company will not officially enter a period of stable growth until 2009, so we use 2009 earnings per share as the valuation standard. With reference to the valuation of listed companies in biological products at home and abroad, we think that it is reasonable to give the company a price-to-earnings ratio of 25 times earnings, which is equivalent to 25.85 yuan, which is basically the same as the absolute valuation of the company.
Considering that the company has not yet carried out share reform, it is expected that there will be a certain proportion of stock delivery during the share reform, which will also reduce the investment cost to a certain extent. Although the company's current share price has risen to a certain extent, it still has considerable room to rise, so it gives the company a "recommended" investment rating.