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【东方证券】岳阳兴长:前途光明 道路曲折

[Oriental Securities] Yueyang's rise: the road ahead is bright and tortuous

東方證券 ·  Mar 5, 2008 00:00  · Researches

HP is a globally endemic pathogen. More than half of the world's people are infected with HP, and its prevalence is rising with age. In developed countries, the Hp infection rate for children is 5% to 10%, and the highest stability for adults is around 50%; in developing countries, 80% to 90% of adults are infected with this bacterium, and the proportion of children infected with Hp is also very high. The bacteria infects the stomach and causes gastritis, stomach ulcers, and duodenal ulcers. HP's traditional treatment method is to use antibiotics in combination with other drugs. The overall effect is good, but it is easy to cause recurrence. Therefore, in recent years, all countries have been developing HP vaccines. Under Professor Zou Quanming's leadership, after more than 10 years of painstaking research, the HP vaccine successfully completed phase III clinical trials in 2007. The results were satisfactory, and it is expected to become the world's first stomach disease vaccine.

The reason we are optimistic about the HP vaccine is its broad market prospects. As a preventive vaccine, theoretically speaking, any patient not infected with Helicobacter pylori can take this vaccine. Generally, children are highly infected with Helicobacter pylori, so experts recommend that children be the primary target for the stomach disease vaccine. For patients who have been infected with Helicobacter pylori, regular “triple treatment” can be performed first to eliminate Helicobacter pylori in the body, and then take the vaccine to produce protective antibodies. We target 30 million newborns each year. If the market price of the vaccine were 200-300 yuan/person, the market potential would be huge. Of course, getting people to accept the idea of an oral vaccine and developing this market will be an arduous and long-term process. The high profitability of vaccines is well known. If 5 million copies can be sold, we expect net profit to reach at least 200 million yuan.

Although we are very optimistic about the prospects of the HP vaccine, there is still some uncertainty about its acquisition of a new drug certificate, and we are not rating it yet. We will update the research report in a timely manner based on the progress of the incident. We also recommend investors to actively pay attention to Yueyang's growth.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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