What happened: the company reported that its operating income in the first half of 2015 was 931 million, down 21% from the same period last year, and the net profit belonging to shareholders of listed companies was-123 million, down 401% from the same period last year. Under the influence of periodic API overcapacity, the price and sales of the company's main API products have dropped sharply, and the API business sector has suffered a great impact, which is the main reason for the losses. at the same time, due to the increase in operating costs after the conversion of the company's new plant and the expansion of business scope in the field of pharmaceutical circulation, management expenses increased by about 50 million compared with the same period last year, further aggravating the loss. Huang Li, CEO of the company, resigned and appointed Mr. Yu Erlong as the company's CEO and Wang Lei as the company's financial director.
The loss reduced in the second quarter, and the API business gradually faded out, waiting to be spun off: revenue of 458 million in the first quarter, loss of 91.41 million, revenue of 473 million in the second quarter, loss of 43.99 million, and gross profit margin increased by 10 percentage points compared with the first quarter. We judge that the company takes the initiative to shrink its API business, while the preparation business with high gross profit margin grows steadily, and the device circulation business grows at a high speed. We expect the net profit of the preparation + circulation business to be about 10,000 in the first half of the year, and is expected to achieve 8000-90 million for the whole year. The judgment of raw material drug stripping is expected to be landed within the third quarter. The company will form the layout of the whole industry chain of "preparation-circulation-medical service". In the future, we will actively look for high-quality resources in line with the company's main development areas, and seek business cooperation and strategic M & An opportunities.
The change of CEO is consistent with the direction of business adjustment: both Mr. Huang and Mr. Yu Erlong are from founder Group. With the divestiture of the company's API business, Mr. Yu Erlong's succession of Mr. Huang Jie is in line with the company's future development strategy and has less impact on the company.
Unique resources, clear group strategy: the future strategy of Peking University Medical Group in the field of medical services is very clear: (1) through the acquisition / cooperation / new model, the formation of comprehensive + specialist hospital network acquisition of general hospitals as the leading, with the third-level general hospital as the center, the future can also use cooperation, trusteeship and other models to extend to lower-level hospitals, and radiation community medical care, and finally form a three-level diagnosis and treatment system in the region. The residents in the covered area need medical treatment, old-age care, rehabilitation, health management and so on. With acquisition, cooperation and new specialist medical institutions as auxiliary, urology and tumor as the breakthrough, rapid chain replication through the cooperation center model, (2) through the extension of the hospital network value chain, the formation of the whole industry chain integration effect around the hospital value chain can carry out a series of layout around the hospital value chain, such as drugs, consumable materials distribution, equipment financial leasing, logistics management, information, pension rehabilitation, health management and so on. Form the synergistic effect of the whole industry chain.
The oncology medical service market exceeds 100 billion yuan, the specialist hospital investment high barrier, the high return: the oncology medical service market total amount is more than 100 billion, the added value is high around the industrial chain, the company will rely on Peking University tumor Management Company in the future, take Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei as the core, through the acquisition of hospitals or the establishment of cooperation centers, carry out chain oncology specialist medical management and other business, establish a brand oncology specialist medical network. We believe that the top physician resources and excellent management system of Peking University, the capital advantages of listed companies and industrial M & A funds will be the guarantee and competitive barriers for the company to achieve this market share.
Investment suggestion: only calculate the business income of preparation, circulation and service, which is expected to be 0.14 yuan in 15-17 years (excluding the performance increase caused by the one-time income of asset divestiture), 0.20,0.25yuan, corresponding to PE 134,93 and 73 times. Taking into account the company's overall industry chain layout of oncology medical services and the value of the group's resource integration platform, maintain the company's "buy" rating.
Risk hints: post-acquisition hospital integration risk, oncology specialist medical layout slower than expected risk, circulation, equipment business merger and acquisition slower than expected risk, state-owned enterprise execution risk.