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【海通证券】漳泽电力:整合同煤旗下煤电资产,股价有所透支

海通證券 ·  Oct 28, 2011 00:00  · Researches

Overall evaluation: Tongmei Group has turned Zhangze Electric Power into a coal-fired power joint venture. Through this platform, it is planned to enter the electricity sector. It is planned that by the end of the “12th Five-Year Plan”, the total installed capacity of Zhangze Electric Power will rise from more than 6 million kilowatts to 12 million kilowatts to 15 million kilowatts, accounting for 1/4 to 1/3 of the thermal power installed in Shanxi Province. After this restructuring, Linfen Thermal Power, which is a subsidiary of Zhangze Electric Power, will become Kengkou power plants of Huokou Coal and Jincheng Coal. Judging from the purchase price, the comprehensive equivalent of 2010 PE is 52 times, and the current PB is 1.33 times, which is basically the same as the current valuation level of the secondary market. The most important significance of this restructuring is the reduction of coal combustion costs for existing thermal power companies in Zhangze Electric Power. Since it is impossible to calculate the extent of profit improvement in this part of the business, we tend to use the PB valuation of the thermal power companies currently on the market, plus the PB valuation level of peers to be injected into coal assets this time as a reference. Its total net assets of thermal power are 3.163 billion yuan. Currently, the PB valuation of Huaneng and other national thermal power leaders is 1.3-1.5 times, and the total net coal assets are 600 million yuan. Referring to Datong Coal PB 2.5-3 times, which is also a subsidiary of Tongmei Group, the corresponding reasonable market value is 56-6.5 billion yuan, and the corresponding stock price is 4.3-5 yuan. Even taking into account the doubling of the electricity scale over the next five years and giving a 20% premium to the valuation, the corresponding stock price is 5.2-6 yuan. The current stock price has already overdrawn the expectations of this restructuring to a certain extent, so no ratings will be given yet, and adjustments will be made according to the improvement in its profit.

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