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【国金证券】华闻传媒:全牌照全媒介布局完成,资源整合任重道远

國金證券 ·  Jul 29, 2014 00:00  · Researches

The investment logic is complete, and there is a long way to go for resource integration: (1) Beginning in 2006, the company implemented strategic restructuring to transform the media business, and the actual controller was changed to China Radio International (CRI); (2) CRI has a full license in the domestic media sector, and its Internet TV license operator, Guangdong (36..82%), and mobile TV license operator Guoshi Communications (100%) have completed part or all of the asset injection; (3) In 13-14, it also successively acquired Guoguang Rong (broadcast) and Chinese media (paper advertising) (paper advertising) (paper) medium) (31.75%) , Focus Culture (building advertising) (60%) has some or all of the shares. At this point, the layout of all media such as newspapers, radio, the Internet, and mobile Internet has been completed. (4) Exporting its news/financial information, film and television, comics, education and other content to users through all media, while providing advertisers with a full-case marketing plan is the company's long-term strategy, and resource integration has a long way to go. The General Administration has rectified Internet television to favor licensors, and mobile video has benefited from 4G and smartphone popularity: (1) In June-July, the State Administration of Radio, Film, Film, and Television took four steps to strictly regulate Internet television to the benefit of licensors; (2) With the advent of the 4G era, the popularity of smart phones brought benefits to mobile video. Pre-paid operator videos and post-paid online videos will coexist in the short term. The former is stable, while the latter has ushered in high growth. The license is in hand, making up for shortcomings is a top priority. Looking at integration and synergy in the long run: (1) Integrating and exporting content resources through the country's Guangdong side and GuoTV Communications is the company's strategic high point. OTT requires licenses, content, capital, and channels. Introducing strategic investor Youku for film and television content, solving funding sources and product promotion channels through telecom operators, is expected to occupy a place in the OTT field; Guoshi Communications is expected to occupy a place in the OTT field with a 25.6% share to become the largest content operator in China's mobile video base, and Zhayi Vision develops post-paid video as the future direction. (2) In addition to licenses and media resources, the Manyou Culture and Too Silly Study Abroad Network it has acquired are also of high quality. The synergistic effects brought about by effective integration will determine the space for future growth. Profit forecasts and investment recommendations expect the 14-16 EPS to be 0.49, 0.47, and 0.58 yuan respectively, and the acquisition of 5 companies including Guoshi Communications and Zhaiyi Vision in early 2014, and the total share capital will increase to 2,055 billion yuan. According to the promised performance, the net profit for 14-16 will increase by 2.20, 2.94, and 394 million yuan, respectively, and the EPS preparation for the 14-16 exam will be 0.55, 0.57, and 0.71 yuan respectively. The current stock price corresponding to 14-16 PE is 23, 22, and 18 times, respectively, and the valuation is not high; the initial rating “increased holdings”, the company's full media license Already The layout is complete, and resources will be integrated later. In the short term, the General Administration will strictly regulate Internet television, and the company's active introduction of strategic investors, Youku, and the development will hopefully catalyze stock prices. It is recommended that the layout be carried out during the GEM adjustment process, with a target price of 15 yuan. The performance of the target of the risk acquisition fell short of expectations, and the progress of integration fell short of expectations.

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