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【广发证券】华神集团:借助单抗药物或许实现业绩拐点

廣發證券 ·  Apr 27, 2010 00:00  · Researches

Our main point of view. The traditional business of Huashen Group can only solve the company's subsistence problem, but the company's innovative drugs may be able to achieve a breakthrough in performance in recent years, thus making the company's performance extremely flexible and reminding investors to pay close attention. Likatin may be the star of tomorrow. The rapid development of monoclonal antibodies in the world and the current state of monoclonal drugs in China have formed a stark contrast. In an environment where the domestic liver cancer market is so huge, we are very optimistic about the prospects of ricatin. Although it is very difficult to predict its exact sales volume, we can look ahead to the future: if the sales volume of 6,000 units is completed, the company's performance can be increased by 3 cents. And we think the domestic market for this product is far more than that. The equity structure is conducive to the long-term development of the company. The company can use the medical research institute of Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, which is the majority shareholder, as a platform to strengthen research and research capabilities and increase product reserves. The equity incentive plan announced at the end of '09 is very beneficial to improving team cohesion and motivating employees. Currently, proprietary Chinese medicines and steel products are still the main sources of profit. The company's profit pillars mainly come from 37 Tongxu, Nose Relief, and steel products. We expect these varieties to maintain the current trend and continue to develop in the future. Profit forecasts and investment ratings. Without considering Huashen Biotech's explosive growth, we calculated that the company's EPS for 10-12 years was 0.087 yuan, 0.114 yuan, and 0.179 yuan. Under this forecast, the company's PE value is very high, but considering the performance elasticity that innovative drugs such as ricatin may bring to the company, we still recommend that investors pay close attention to the company's situation and give the company a “buy” rating. Risk warning. 1. The sales situation of ricatin is lower than our expectations; 2. The rise in the price of Chinese herbal medicines affects the company's gross profit margin; 3. Steel products have fluctuated.

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