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【东方证券】山西三维:BDO、PTMEG景气回升,2011年业绩有望大幅好转

東方證券 ·  Mar 18, 2011 00:00  · Researches

Highlight 1: Under our assumption of a crude oil price of 88 US dollars/barrel in 2011, we estimate that the cost of the maleic anhydride method BDO (petroleum route) is around 18,500 yuan/ton, and the product price of 20,000 yuan/ton is basically in break-even balance, so the maleic anhydride method BDO has strong support for the current price in terms of cost. However, the cost of the alkynaldehyde method BDO (coal chemical line), which is mainly three-dimensional, is currently only 13,000 yuan/ton, and the net profit per ton is close to 5,000 yuan, so the profitability is quite impressive. Highlight 2: PTMEG is another major product of the company. Since PTMEG's downstream spandex industry has expanded production by more than 30% this year, and PTMEG has only added 30,000 tons of new production capacity in the past two years, the PTMEG industry is expected to enter a booming phase in the second half of the year. We predict that PTMEG's average price for today and next two years will be 34,000 yuan/ton and the price of BDO will change every 500 yuan in 2011. The performance elasticity is 0.04 yuan. PTMEG's price change is 0.07 yuan per 1,000 yuan. Highlight 3: In addition to its main BDO and PVA series products, the company is also actively planning to expand its business upstream to achieve industrial integration. Specifically, it is divided into the following three sectors: 1. Chemical construction and design; 2. Coke production and deep processing of crude benzene; 3. High-value-added upstream fine chemical raw materials, such as VV10 (tertiary vinyl carbonate), a raw material for dry powder. We predict that in the next few years, these additional businesses will provide more than 100 million yuan in gross profit. A buy rating was given for the first time, and the target price was 18 yuan. According to our forecast, the company's EPS for 10-12 years was 0.07, 0.71, and 1.08 yuan respectively. Considering that the company's boom in main products will reverse upward this year and next two years, and there is incremental production capacity, the company was given a purchase rating for the first time. Based on the 11-year average price-earnings ratio of comparable companies of 25 times, the corresponding target price is 18 yuan. Risk factors: 1. BDO was put into production faster than expected, which had an impact on product prices; 2. The development of epitaxial businesses such as construction fell short of our expectations

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