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【渤海证券】锌业股份:锌价下跌及成本上升持续影响经营

渤海證券 ·  Oct 8, 2008 00:00  · Researches

The company's losses increased due to the deep adjustment of zinc prices: on October 9, 2008, Zinc Industry Co., Ltd. issued an announcement to adjust the loss amount. The estimated loss for January-September was around 296 million yuan. Measured by the number of announcements, the company reported a performance of -0.27 yuan for the 3rd quarter, and a loss of 0.1 yuan for the 3rd quarter. Zinc prices fell sharply. In January-September, the domestic price was 0 #锌现货成交均价17384元 /ton, down 40.84% year on year; lead price was 19,164 yuan/ton, up 3.2% year on year. At the same time, domestic coal and coke prices rose sharply in January-September, and the company's zinc smelting costs increased dramatically. The company currently has a zinc smelting capacity of 370,000 tons and does not have its own mine. Due to high costs and financial difficulties, the company's pyrotechnic zinc part has been discontinued intermittently. According to information, the company's hedging amount was very small during the sharp drop in zinc prices, and there was no good risk control. This is worse than smelting companies such as Zhuye Group. It was more difficult for the company to operate in the fourth quarter: the company used to be the largest zinc smelter in China. Since its listing in 1997, the company has been committed to smelting and construction and lost great opportunities. It has not been able to seize favorable opportunities to develop itself. The company's raw materials have always relied on domestic procurement and foreign imports of raw materials. No own mines have limited the company's development, and the company's position in the industry has been greatly reduced. Against the backdrop of the further development of the US financial crisis, domestic zinc prices have fallen below 13,000 yuan, and high-cost chains in the industrial chain have lost money. As an industry with large smelting capacity and high costs, it will be more difficult for zinc industry stocks to operate in the fourth quarter. At the same time, the company's blower furnace copper smelting system has not been modified and is in the industry elimination series. How to raise funds to build a new smelting system as soon as possible is also a difficult problem facing the company. The restructuring or injection project of China Metallurgical Group is the company's only hope: in the second half of 2007, China Metallurgical Group held shares in the zinc industry and restructured the company, but there was little success. Currently, China Metallurgical Group is also considering the company's future development, and does not rule out arranging some new projects in Zinc Industry Co., Ltd. This may be the company's only hope. In view of the fact that China Metallurgical Group has not yet made any substantial action, and the company's business environment will be worse in the fourth quarter, it will continue to maintain the company's “selling” rating

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