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【申银万国】漳泽电力09年报及10年一季报点评:10年电力业务亏损难以避免,股价具备安全边际

申萬宏源 ·  Apr 21, 2010 00:00  · Researches

Results for 2009 and 10Q1 fell short of expectations. The company achieved revenue of 4,035 billion dollars in 2009, an increase of 40% over the previous year. The main reason was the recovery in utilization hours and the increase in feed-in tariffs for the company's units in November 2009; the operating cost was 3,944 billion yuan, down 2% from the previous year, due to the reduction in fuel costs. The company achieved net profit attributable to the parent company of 14 million yuan, equivalent to an EPS of 0.01 yuan, lower than our estimate of 0.03 yuan, but still successfully reversed losses. At the same time, the company released its 10-year quarterly report. Earnings per share were only 0.004 yuan, which was lower than market expectations. The improvement in profit and non-recurring earnings of Huaze Aluminum Electric were important factors in achieving a loss in 2009. With the recovery in aluminum prices, Huize Aluminum Electric, which holds 40% of the company's shares, reversed losses in 09Q4. We estimate that the profit for the single quarter was over 0.2 billion, and the loss for the whole year was kept within 200 million. In addition, disposal of non-current assets ($22 million), government subsidies ($13 million), etc. are also important reasons why companies are able to reverse losses. The pressure on coal-fired costs is high, and losses in the company's electricity business in 2010 are unavoidable. While the electrolytic aluminum business is improving, the profit situation of the company's main power business is not optimistic. Due to rising coal prices, the company's gross margin level in 09Q4-10Q1 fell to around 0%. If there is no significant decline in coal prices in 10 years, losses in the company's electricity business will be unavoidable, thus hampering performance. The stock price has a certain margin of safety and maintains an “increase in holdings” rating. Under the basic assumptions of a comprehensive standard coal price of 606/619 yuan/ton in 10-11, hourly usage changes of -3%/5%, and aluminum prices (including tax) of 17000/18,000 yuan/ton, we expect the company's EPS in 10-11 to be 0.07/0.11 yuan. Even according to the conservative 1.5 times PB for the company's electricity business (average 2.1 times PB for the thermal power industry) and 20 times PE for the electrolytic aluminum business, it is estimated that the company's reasonable value should be 5.82 yuan, the current price still has a margin of safety, and the “increase in holdings” rating has been maintained for the time being.

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