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【华泰联合证券】华神集团:单抗先锋,涅磐在即

華泰聯合證券 ·  Jun 5, 2010 00:00  · Researches

A diversified enterprise transitioning to biomedicine. Huashen Group's main business is Chinese and Western proprietary pharmaceuticals, biopharmaceuticals, veterinary pharmaceuticals, veterinary biological vaccines, and steel structure engineering design. Currently, the company's development strategy is to transform into a high-tech biomedical enterprise industry. The monoclonal antibody, licatin, is expected to experience explosive growth. The Group's biotechnology subsidiaries currently own two national first-class new drugs with independent intellectual property rights. Among them, lycatine is the only antibody drug with a new target with independent intellectual property rights in China, and is also the world's first monoclonal antibody drug used to treat primary liver cancer known as the “king of cancer.” It has very promising application prospects in liver cancer treatment. After early marketing promotion and terminal construction, it is expected to usher in explosive growth. The proprietary Chinese medicine business contributes to the company's main profits. One of the leading products, nasal relief liquid, has maintained a leading position among similar products for acute and chronic rhinitis and sinusitis for a long time; 37 Tongshu capsules are a new national traditional Chinese medicine class II drug, mainly used for the treatment and prevention of ischemic stroke. The 37 saponin preparations to which it belongs, cardiovascular drugs, are the most rapidly developing variety in the Chinese hospital cardiovascular drug market, and the revenue CAGR of 37 Tongshu capsules has exceeded 60% in the last three years. The steel structure business is temporarily acting as the Group's cash cow. The gross margin of the steel structure business is low, but currently operating income accounts for about half of total revenue. Given the characteristics of large investment, long cycles, and high risk in the biopharmaceutical industry in a short period of time, the steel structure business should adopt a strategy of gradually fading out as the group's cash cow. The equity incentive plan is expected to increase the company's investment value. On February 10, 2010, the company officially implemented an equity incentive plan and granted 8 million restricted shares at one time to all of the company's incentive targets. We believe that the equity incentive plan is conducive to improving the business performance of the enterprise. Profit forecast: According to our estimates, traditional Chinese medicine contributed 0.2039 yuan in EPS in 2010, corresponding to 50 times the PE valuation of Chinese medicine companies with a small market capitalization; biopharmaceuticals contributed 0.0439 yuan in EPS in 2010. Considering the possibility of increasing the sales volume of licatin this year, as well as many unique aspects such as the world's only monoclonal drug for liver cancer, the only manufacturer of A-share monoclonal antibody drugs, and the only monoclonal drug with independent intellectual property rights in China, there is reason to enjoy 100 times the PE valuation in 2010; the 2010 performance of the sports insurance business compared to EPS fundamentals There was no contribution. The steel structure business contributed -0.1,539 yuan in EPS in 2010, corresponding to 10 times the PE valuation of the corresponding industry. Then the reasonable value of the company in 2010 is: P=0.2039*50+0.0439*100+ (-0.1539) *10+ (-0.0044) *20=12.99 yuan.

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