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【西南证券】四川美丰:国内车用尿素需求空间有望打开,开启公司新纪元

西南證券 ·  Dec 31, 2013 00:00  · Researches

Recommended logic: The pace of introduction of policies related to smog control has accelerated, the country's tolerance for automobile exhaust has gradually reached its limit, along with the pace of oil product upgrades, the pace of transformation of car companies is in line with expectations, vehicle urea production capacity initially meets market demand, all aspects of the exhaust emission control system are gradually being prepared, and implementation of the national four emission standards for heavy vehicles has become possible. We expect the emission upgrade to enter the implementation period in 6/7/14. The country's four-stage blue ocean market for automotive urea is expected to gradually open up. It is expected to bring about 200,000 tons of automotive urea sales to the company in 2014, increasing EPS by 0.3 yuan. Sichuan Meifeng opens a new era in the field of energy and environmental protection. Fog and haze are frequent, and the importance of automobile exhaust management is becoming more and more obvious. Motor vehicle exhaust emissions are the main source of air pollution. Among them, nitrogen oxides emitted by large buses and heavy goods vehicles account for about 70% of the total nitrogen oxide emissions from motor vehicles. The importance of environmental protection policies for atmospheric management has become more clear, which is expected to stimulate rapid growth in demand in the automobile exhaust purification market. The five national gasoline standards have been announced. The upgrade of oil quality is expected to drive the implementation of national IV emission standards for diesel vehicles ahead of schedule. The SCR scheme has more advantages in the national IV diesel vehicle exhaust emission treatment system, and automotive urea has become an essential product for the promotion of the SCR program. Domestic demand potential for automotive urea is huge, and the annual demand is expected to reach 4 to 7 million tons. We expect the emissions upgrade to enter the implementation period soon. The blue ocean market for domestic automotive urea, which has entered the fourth phase of the country, is expected to gradually open up. Sichuan Meifeng stands out with its channel advantages and will gradually transform into an environmentally friendly company. The company has a production capacity of 600,000 tons of automotive urea. The EU export orders for 10,000 tons and 30,000 tons of automotive urea pellets were completed in 2012 and this year respectively. The quality is highly recognized abroad and exported to more than 10 countries and regions. In addition to having advantages in scale and technology, channel advantages highlight the company's competitive advantage. Sichuan Meifeng has already distributed goods at Sinopec gas stations in Sichuan Province, taking the first step in building outlets. Sinopec achieved a domestic refined oil sales volume of 112 million tons in 2012. In the future, with Sinopec's huge distribution network (2,8100 self-operated companies, more than 800 franchisees and franchises), Sinopec will rapidly expand its market share and gradually transform into an environmentally friendly company. Profit forecasts and investment advice. The EPS for 2013 to 2015 is expected to be 0.40 yuan, 0.88 yuan, and 1.25 yuan respectively, and the corresponding dynamic price-earnings ratios are 25 times, 11 times, and 8 times respectively. Considering that the company's business is in a transition period, it will enter the chemical environmental protection field and the LNG clean energy field in the future. Compared with the company's original valuation level, the company has themed investment opportunities and given the company a “buy” rating. Risk warning: The implementation of the national four emission standards for heavy vehicles is slower than expected, or the implementation is lower than expected; the risk that the progress of the LNG project is falling short of expectations.

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