2006 will be an inflection point for the company's performance growth: in the past few years, in addition to operating national highway projects, the company has also been involved in tap water supply, automobile sales, etc., and the profit level is low. The company lost 0.65 yuan per share in 2005 due to loss of original national highway assets, plus asset replacement and long-term equity investment differences. However, after several asset replacements, acquisitions, etc., the company has now formed four major business systems: expressways, water services, automobile sales, and real estate. The company's future profit growth mainly comes from the highway and real estate business: the company indirectly holds 25.5% of the Zhangzhao Expressway and 28.8% of the Zhanglong Expressway through Zhang Jiaotai, and uses the cost method for accounting. The two highways are still in the early stages of operation, and the Longchang Expressway connected to the Zhanglong Expressway will be completed and opened to traffic by the end of 2006, and traffic has great potential for growth. It is assumed that the dividends of the two companies lag one year behind net profit. In 06-08, EPS for the highway business will reach 0.095 yuan, 0.112 yuan, and 0.134 yuan, respectively. In terms of real estate business, the company's development focus this year and next two years is a comprehensive commercial and residential project on Jiangbin Road. It is conservatively estimated that after full settlement, it will bring the company a net profit of 80 million yuan. In addition, the company also plans to actively participate in the construction of first-level land development and housing resettlement projects in Zhangzhou. A good relationship with the government is a double-edged sword: the company has deep ties with the local government. Although this will allow the company to receive strong support from the government in terms of project acquisition, policy concessions, etc., we are worried that the company will have to pay a certain price for this kind of policy support in other areas. The company's financial pressure is huge, and the risk of refinancing is not ruled out: Currently, the company's balance ratio is 56.8%. After targeted repurchases are carried out to reduce other receivables, the balance ratio will rise to more than 60%. However, if the company participates in the construction of the Xiazhang Cross-Sea Bridge in the future, we will need to invest 250 million yuan, and we do not rule out the possibility of the company refinancing in the next one to two years. Give the company a “strength-2” rating. According to our profit forecast for the company's existing business and projects, the company's EPS for 06-08 was 0.11 yuan, 0.19 yuan, and 0.31 yuan, respectively, and the corresponding dynamic price-earnings ratios were 25 times, 14 times, and 9 times, respectively. Considering that the growth of the company's real estate business may have exceeded our expectations, we gave the company an “Advantage-2” rating.
【光大证券】G漳发展(000753):高速公路和房地产是主要利润增长点
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