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【天相投资】漳州发展:业绩低于预期,盈利依靠投资收益

[Tianxiang Investment] the development of Zhangzhou: the performance is lower than expected and the profit depends on the investment income.

天相投資 ·  Apr 11, 2011 00:00  · Researches

For the whole of 2010, the company achieved operating income of 1.657 billion yuan, an increase of 33.72% over the same period last year. The net profit belonging to the owner of the parent company was 63 million yuan, up 35.11% from the same period last year. In the fourth quarter, the company achieved operating income of 512 million yuan, an increase of 27.05% over the same period last year and 29.95% month-on-month growth. The net profit attributed to the owner of the parent company was-12 million yuan, compared with 12 million yuan in the same period of 2009 and 3 million yuan in the third quarter. The distribution scheme is 0.5 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares.

The company's gross profit margin has declined, and its profit depends on investment income. The company's comprehensive gross profit margin in 2010 was 10.64%, down 0.66 percentage points from 2009, mainly due to a 0.42 percentage point drop in the gross profit margin of the automobile trade business, which accounts for nearly 80% of the main revenue. The company generated an investment income of 106 million yuan from the transfer of Zhangzhou Jingda Land Comprehensive Development Co., Ltd in 2010. after deducting this investment income, the operating profit of the company's main business in 2008 was-36 million yuan. the company's operating profit in 2010 and 2009 was also negative after deducting investment income, mainly due to the company's low gross profit margin. According to the company's historical annual report, the company's comprehensive gross profit margin has been hovering between 10% and 11.5% since 2008, mainly due to the lack of market pricing power because the company's main business is trade and lack of its own brand. The company's expense rate for the period in 2010 was 10.23%, up 0.54% from the same period last year, mainly due to a 0.39% increase in management expenses, indicating that the company's management efficiency has not improved.

The growth of the company's auto trade business will slow down significantly. In 2010, the company's auto trade business achieved sales revenue of 1.253 billion yuan, an increase of 30.55% over the same period last year, mainly due to a 32.37% increase in domestic new car sales in 2010. Domestic new car sales only increased by 8.08% in the first quarter of 2011 compared with the same period last year, with a large decline, and the company's auto trade business will inevitably be greatly affected. at the same time, with the continuous listing and financing strength of leaders in the automobile trade industry, such as the huge Group (601258), it will continue to squeeze the company's living space in the field of automobile trade, and the annual growth rate in the future is likely to fall to single digits.

Profit forecast. It is estimated that the EPS of the company from 2011 to 2013 will be 0.12,0.16,0.24 yuan respectively. Based on the closing price of 8.63 yuan on April 8, the dynamic price-to-earnings ratio is 72 times, 54 times and 36 times respectively, maintaining the company's "neutral" investment rating.

Risk hint. (1) the risk that the company's main gross profit margin will continue to decline; (2) the risk that the growth rate of sales in the automobile industry will decline faster than expected.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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