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【中信建投】锌业股份:预亏公告点评

中信建投證券 ·  Jan 30, 2008 00:00  · Researches

Zinc prices fell rapidly in the fourth quarter of 2007: among basic metals, zinc prices fell 44% in 2007, the biggest drop. In particular, since mid-October, zinc prices have declined quite rapidly. The average price in November fell by nearly 15% compared to the month in October. The sharp decline in the short term had a great impact on the normal production and operation of the company. The cost of raw zinc concentrate is high: the company has not had its own mine until now, so it is also limited by mineral raw materials. Most of the zinc concentrate for the company's production in the fourth quarter was purchased in the early stages, so the raw material cost is high. We believe this was also the reason for the huge losses in the fourth quarter. Zinc ingot production is expected to decline sequentially in the fourth quarter: due to falling zinc prices and tight raw zinc concentrates, domestic zinc smelters began to cut production in December. The company's zinc ingot production is expected to decline month-on-month in the fourth quarter. We think the fourth quarter is the bottom of the company, and the situation will gradually improve starting in the first quarter of this year. Domestic transportation was tight in the first quarter, and the supply of zinc concentrate was tight, which will all lead to a decline in zinc ingot production, which is beneficial to zinc prices. The rating was downgraded to neutral: in the short term, we think the market may overreflect the pre-loss. The rating was downgraded to neutral. The loss situation is expected to be reversed in 2008.

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