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【招商证券】山西三维:BDO步入景气周期

招商證券 ·  Nov 8, 2010 00:00  · Researches

BDO prices are getting better. Domestic BDO prices rebounded sharply in late August. Up to now, the range has risen by about 40% to 23,700 yuan/ton, reaching a high since 2007. At the same time, the price differences between the RepPE method and the maleic anhydride method after deducting the cost of major raw materials have also reached 2007 highs. The company began to enjoy the boom in BDO, and PTMEG price increases are lagging behind. The company's 75,000-ton RepPE method BDO device is basically operating at full load, and the 75,000-ton maleic anhydride method BDO device began trial production in October, and the load was around 340%. At current prices, it is conservatively estimated that the gross profit of the RepPE method has reached more than 5,000 yuan. PTMEG lost money from BDO to PTMEG due to delays in price increases and the magnitude is relatively small. Next year, the BDO boom will continue, and PTMEG's price increase can be expected. In 2011, China added about 180,000 tons of effective BDO production capacity over the same period last year. Meanwhile, by the end of this year, China's newly invested spandex production capacity will reach about 120,000 tons, and the corresponding BDO demand is about 130,000 tons. Next year, China will add 60,000 tons of PBT resin production capacity, and the corresponding additional demand for maleic anhydride BDO will increase by 25,000 tons. Considering that newly invested BDO production capacity is generally low, it is expected that next year BDO will maintain its current state of relatively tight supply, and the BDO net import situation cannot be changed for the time being. Also, judging from the timing of production capacity commissioning, most of the new demand for BDO appeared in the first half of 2011, which will cause BDO supply to be relatively tight in the first half of next year. Meanwhile, the drastic expansion of spandex production will also add a large amount of demand for PTMEG in terms of product structure. For the first time, the company was given a “Highly Recommended B” investment rating. Based on next year's BDO production of 68,000 tons under the RepPE method and 40,000 tons of maleic anhydride, excluding profits from the PTMEG and GBL processes downstream of BDO production, the impact of the BDO price difference of 1,000 yuan/ton on the company's EPS is 0.19 yuan. The company's EPS for 10-12 years is expected to be 0.09, 0.78, and 0.85 yuan, respectively. The company is conservatively given 20 times PE over 11 years. Based on this, the company was given an investment rating of “Highly Recommended B” for the first time, with a target price of 15.6 yuan.

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